We summoned the Point Spread Doctor last week, also known as PSD, to cure us of our debilitating NFL handicapping woes, and all he did was give us a stone-cold case of PTSD when the dust settled. That’s right, the good doctor went 0-3 ATS, burned through 11.3 units and flatlined any hopes we had of digging ourselves out of this money pit of an NFL season.
Well, I’ve tried just about everything to extricate myself from this financial abyss, but it’s the playoffs, and perhaps if we start over and pretend the regular season was just a bad dream, we’ll wake up to sunshine, lilacs, and lollipops. That’s my story, and I’m sticking to it, kids.
It’s a new dawn, it’s a new day, it’s a new life—for me… and I’m feeling good (cue the jazzy trombone and all the boys in the brass section). Thanks to Canadian crooner Michael Bublé for that immaculate 2005 cover he did of Nina Simone’s timeless classic.
Without further ado, let’s get to our Wild Card round NFL picks and begin anew. After all, it’s a new dawn, it’s a new day, and dammit, we’re feelin’ good!
Swinger’s 2025 NFL Playoff Record: 0-0 ATS (0.00 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
Wild Card NFL Picks At-a-Glance
This week’s Wild Card NFL picks are a fresh start. Sure, we’ve made plenty of handicapping faux pas this season, but we have also had every bad bounce, poor call, and bad break go against us. Historical comebacks came at our expense, as we’ve seen several double-digit leads melt like butter in a blast furnace.
The NFL picks for Wild Card Weekend are mine and mine alone. I’ve called the medical board and reported PSD for malpractice. Let’s see if it really is a new dawn and a new day because I’m beggin’ to feel good after this weekend is over.
Los Angeles Rams vs. Carolina Panthers (+10)
Saturday, January 10 – 4:30 PM ET
The sheeple are not prone to betting on underdogs, but Joe Q. Public is looking at the Panthers like ham on Swiss after recalling the previous meeting between these teams when Carolina edged the Rams, 31-28, at the end of November.
Well, all I can say is good for them because we are happily laying the double digits with the road favorite, because there were so many factors working against LA in that game that it’s difficult to know where to start.
First, the Rams found themselves in the midst of the proverbial trap game after scoring a big win the previous week over the Bucs under the white-hot spotlight of Sunday Night Football while staring down the barrel of a divisional game against the Cardinals the following week.
Quite simply, the Rams overlooked the Panthers, and, conversely, Carolina played their best game of the season. LA also had injuries at several key spots in that game, but now they’re healthy, and even the Red Zone King himself, Davante Adams, will return after sitting on the sidelines for several weeks with a hamstring injury.
Final note, the Panthers own a -69 in point differential this season, the worst ever for a playoff team, while the Rams are +172. Let’s back the Rams for big bucks in this one.
Expert Pick: Rams -10 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage
Green Bay Packers vs. Chicago Bears (+1)
Saturday, January 10 – 8:00 PM ET
The more I study this game, the more I like the Packers. Yes, Green Bay has lost their last four games, including one to the Bears three weeks ago. But Jordan Love has been out for three weeks in concussion protocol, including that loss to Chicago. However, Love played a key role in the Packers’ 28-21 victory over the Bears on December 7th, and he is set to return for this playoff matchup at Soldier Field.
The Packers’ coaching staff knows you can’t hurry Love.
However, my only reluctance is that the Packers quarterback hasn’t played in several weeks, and he could be a bit on the rusty side. But that hesitation only lowers my units on this one and does not drive me off this Green Bay bet.
The Bears are No. 31 in quarterback pressures, so Love will have time to smoke a butt and have a cup of coffee in the pocket before selecting the object of his aerial affection. Chicago also owns the 21st-ranked run-stop unit, and guess who’s finally healthy? C’mon down, Josh Jacobs, you’re next up on the Night is Nice when you’re a tailback playing against a porous Bears’ defensive unit.
Before we get too giddy, we should understand that Micah Parsons is sidelined for the season with a torn ACL, and Caleb Williams has the benefit of a stout offensive line. This is a game that is shaping up to go over, so we will put a few units on the total to boot.
Let’s back the Pack and go over in this one.
Expert Pick: Green Bay Packers -1 (-102) for 2 units at Bookmaker
Expert Pick: Over 45½ (-108) for 2 units at Heritage
The Woodman’s Picks (12-6 ATS)
Double-digit dogs are like catnip to the Woodman; only the one he chose last week was laced with arsenic. The Woodman got a soft early line of the Chargers +12½ that eventually drifted north about three points due to an influx of sharp action on the Broncos.
Denver wound up winning, 19-3, and covering the number, but don’t despair; the Woodman has acquitted himself quite nicely this season after losing, as evidenced by his 12-6 ATS mark (67%). This week, he is telling everyone who will listen that Brock’s got a purdy mouth and the Niners will soar to victory over the Eagles—but grab the points just in case!
The Woodman’s Wild Card Round NFL Pick: 49ers +5 (-110) at Bovada
Place your NFL Wild Card Round Bets Now
The NFL picks I posted today don’t stay stagnant forever. The odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the point spreads and totals you see written here on the Rams, Packers, and over in the Packers/Bears game may not be around by kickoff.
This is why it’s crucial to secure the most accurate line available and ensure your account is fully funded and prepared for action!
Find the Best NFL Odds at Offshore Sportsbooks
To make the most of our NFL picks Week 18, shop around for the sharpest lines available at the best offshore sportsbooks. Getting the best price can turn a loss into a win over the long season.
For this week’s top picks, take a look at the NFL odds at Bookmaker, Bovada, and Heritage Sports. Having access to multiple books ensures you’re getting the best possible number, and in this game, every half-point counts.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
