So close, but yet so far away. We hit our first two games when the Patriots trashed the Titans, 31-13, as seven-point road chalk for three units, followed by another easy cover when the Browns walloped the hopeless Dolphins, 31-6, as 2 ½ point home favorites for four units.
But then came Sunday night, and in the first underdog I’ve backed in weeks, the Falcons fell flat in San Francisco as the 49ers secured a 20-10 decision, not nearly close enough for us to cover with the 2 ½ point head start we were getting, which cost us 3.30 units.
Overall, we went 2-1 ATS and managed 3.7 units to the good. We’re still down over 15 units on the season, but we have already had a season’s worth of bad beats. Hopefully, we’ve got some fortuitous bounces coming our way.
This week’s best NFL picks from some other BMR cappers can also be found in case you’re looking for a fresh perspective.
But now it’s time for my NFL picks Week 8, and for that, I’m stealing my wife’s only method of transportation and breaking out her broom in anticipation of an easy sweep!
Swinger’s 2025 NFL Record: 9-13 ATS (-15.40 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
NFL Picks Week 8 At-a-Glance
I’m hoping this week’s NFL picks will be going our way after a series of bad bounces and bad beats. Yes, we went 2-1 against the number last week, but this time around, we are mixing it up, trying something new, and hopefully getting back on the winning track.
So, what’s so new and bold about my Week 8 NFL picks, you ask? Well, first off, I’m backing the same team that did me dirty last week, the Atlanta Falcons. Secondly, I am a bit of a square at heart, but I am backing what I believe is a live dog in the Giants.
Lastly, my final pick on Sunday is a total! That’s right, my first over/under of the year, so let’s hope this trifecta of NFL wages clicks on all cylinders!
Giants vs. Eagles (-7½)
Sunday, October 26 – 1:00 PM EDT
The Giants suffered a historic collapse last week when they watched a 19-0 fourth-quarter lead melt like butter in a blast furnace, leading to a 33-32 loss to the Broncos as Denver scored all 33 points in the final frame. That had to mess with their minds, which is why I am scaling this wager back, yet I am still betting on them.
On the other hand, who the hell are the Eagles to lay a touchdown against anyone? Yes, Philly is 5-2 straight up, but only one of those wins came by seven points; all the others were won by under a touchdown. Moreover, one of the two Eagles losses came earlier this month to the Giants when Big Blue claimed a 34-17 victory.
So, the squares will be banking on the revenge factor with the Eagles, but this kid chuckin’ for the Giants, Jaxson Dart, is one gritty bastahd (excuse the Boston accent), and Cam Skattebo rushed for 98 yards and three touchdowns in the previous matchup with the Eagles.
Let’s assume that the Giants can run free once again against Philadelphia, which will move the chains and kill time off the clock. I believe this is going to be a game played within these rather generous margins, so let’s back the G-Men to cover the number and make some cash.
Expert Pick: New York Giants +7½ (-105) for 3 units at Bookmaker
Dolphins vs. Falcons (-7)
Sunday, October 26 – 1:00 PM EDT
Miami is atrocious, and their locker room is toxic. The team doesn’t respect the coach or the quarterback, and this upcoming game may be the nadir of a spectacularly lousy season. The only thing that will bring the team together is if either Tua or Coach Mike McDaniel is sent packing. But that’s unlikely to happen because both just got a bag from the Fish, and it’s doubtful they are willing to cut bait with either just yet.
Moreover, it was bad enough that Tyreek Hill was out, but now Miami’s tight end extraordinaire, Darren Waller, is also out for this one after spraining a pectoral muscle last week in the Dolphins’ 31-6 loss to the Browns.
We faded Miami last week, and it worked out so well for us, we’re going back to the same well. And despite Atlanta costing us money in their loss to the Niners on Sunday night, they will have a much easier time of it against a porous Miami defense that ranks dead last against the run, allowing 159.3 rushing yards per game.
Thus, considering Miami shuts down the run about as well as a fat guy shuts his mouth around a buffet, it’s going to be a long afternoon trying to tackle the best runner in the league, Bijan Robinson. Good luck with that!
Here’s my only caveat regarding this game. Michael Penix Jr. sustained a knee injury last week, and his status is questionable. However, would it surprise anyone if veteran Kirk Cousins has a huge game in his stead should Penix be unable to suit up? Lay it and like it with Atlanta.
Expert Pick: Atlanta Falcons -7 (-123) for 4 units at Heritage Sports
Cowboys vs. Broncos (-3½) – Total 50½
Sunday, October 26 – 4:25 PM EDT
As those who have read this column over the years know, totals are not usually part of my NFL picks. But I believe this is a prime spot to watch this one fly high. And do you know why this is the highest total on the Week 8 board? Because it deserves to be!
But here’s the bugaboo. This total opened at 47, and it has now skyrocketed to 51 at all the major offshore books except Heritage Sports, which is dealing it at 50½.
I can’t say I’m surprised this total has hit the stratosphere, but as good as Denver’s pass defense has been (6th), the Dallas passing attack is even better, averaging over 268 passing yards per game (2nd). And on the flippety-flip, the Cowboys’ defense is hellacious, ranking last in total yards allowed and passing yards allowed and 30th against the run.
Oh, and Denver’s run-stop unit will feel the wrath of their former running back, Javonte Williams, who spent his first four years at Mile High before signing with the Cowboys in the offseason. Betting on Williams to go over the rushing yards total of 61½ might also be prudent, but I have a feeling the books have raised this number in anticipation of this action.
Here’s my prediction: Broncos 37 – Cowboys 33
Expert Pick: Over 50½ (-108) for 4 units at Heritage Sports
The Woodman’s Picks (6-1 ATS)
The Woodman hit his first speed bump of the season in Week 6 but came right back with an ATS winner last week when the underdog Colts not only covered the number but defeated the Chargers outright by the score of 38-24.
After covering in six of his first seven games, the Woodman has tossed away his raggedy threads and is now strutting around in designer suits replete with Gucci loafers. The man is simply radiant in all his sartorial splendor, but if he wants to keep shopping at these pricey boutiques, then he had better keep giving us ATS winners.
In Week 8, he is imploring us to bet the farm on the Bears as they invade Baltimore.
The Woodman’s Week 8 NFL Pick: Bears +6 ½ (-110) at BetAnything
Start a New Sportsbook Account Today
The NFL picks Week 8 I posted today don’t stay stagnant forever. The odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the point spreads you see written here on the Giants, Falcons, and Over in the Dallas/Denver game may not be around by gametime.
Therefore, it is essential that you obtain the sharpest line available, and the only way to do that is to immediately bet on the games and ensure you have an active account.
That’s right, make certain your account is funded, and perhaps get accounts at two or more sportsbooks like BetOnline, Bookmaker, and Heritage Sports, so you can compare the numbers. Shop around, dare to compare, and make sure to get down at a place you trust and at the best offshore lines or odds available.
More Picks from Our Experts
Don’t miss Donnie RightSide’s insight into this week’s games below. And be sure to visit our YouTube channel for more daily betting advice!
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
