NFL Pick: Saints +2 (-110) at Bovada(visit our Bovada Review)
The NFL’s Week 3 slate features numerous teams looking to avoid starting 0-3. There is no true highlight game on this slate, but we find some of the best value in the “smaller” games on this schedule, including Panthers-Seahawks and Titans-Browns.
With the help of the NFL computer predictions at Bookmakers Review, we are looking at some of our favorite spreads and totals for your Week 3 bets at your favorite top-rated sportsbooks.
Time for Carolina to Start Scoring
The Panthers have been a rough watch in starting 0-2, but maybe the Seattle defense can help Frank Reich and Bryce Young get on track. The Seahawks have allowed 30 points in both games so far this season, and they even lost 30-24 at home last year to the Panthers.
The Seahawks are a 4.5-point home favorite with a total of 42.5 points.
Carolina Panthers vs. Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, September 24, 2023 – 04:05 PM EDT at Lumen Field
Carolina Needs to Perk Up
The Panthers have no doubt struggled in the first 2 games for coach Frank Reich and rookie quarterback Bryce Young. In fact, Young’s 4.2 yards per pass attempt is the 3rd-lowest average in NFL history for a quarterback’s first 2 games. When the only lower players are Kyle Boller and Billy Joe Tolliver, this is concerning news for Young’s long-term prospects.
But it has been 2 games, and the Panthers have thrown together a starting offense with no real chemistry as most of the players are veterans who played elsewhere in 2022. Adam Thielen and D.J. Chark (injured in Week 1) are past their prime, and tight end Hayden Hurst has never had a prime.
Young also faced one of the toughest defenses in Week 2 in New Orleans, and both of Carolina’s first 2 games were against division foes with coaching staffs that have experience facing Carolina’s roster.
Things should perk up in Seattle as this defense has already made Matthew Stafford and Jared Goff look otherworldly as there is just no pass rush to speak of for Pete Carroll’s unit. Also, the Panthers moved the ball better in Atlanta in Week 1 but were doomed by 3 turnovers. There is potential here for a solid day if Young can protect the ball.
Seattle’s Offense Gets on Track
If you need proof that division games can be odd, the Seahawks lost 30-13 at home to the Rams before scoring another 37 points in Detroit, the site of their 48-45 win last season. But if 2022 trends are going to repeat themselves in 2023, then Seattle may not like Carolina’s return after the Panthers won 30-24 last year thanks to a huge rushing day (over 220 yards).
But Geno Smith looked very good in Detroit after a slump that started late last season. He has talented receivers, and the Panthers had issues at times with the Saints’ impressive trio of wideouts. They need to get Jaycee Horn back at the corner for this game to deal with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and rookie Jaxon Smith-Njigba.
But the Seahawks’ ability to score is another reason to think the Over has real potential here as the Panthers are about due for a higher-scoring game out of the division.
The Pick
The computer prediction surprised us too as it is close to last year’s 30-24 outcome in Seattle, which was an upset as Sam Darnold only passed for 120 yards for Carolina.
However, 50 points would not be that shocking if the Panthers start to open up the playbook more and maybe design some runs for Young, who had a nice 26-yard scramble against the Saints, the longest play of the game for Carolina.
This feels like a contrarian pick right now, but let’s go against the grain and expect the Panthers to help put up a nice score that hits the over in Seattle.
Score Prediction: Panthers 26 – Seahawks 24
NFL Pick: Over 42½ (-110) at Bovada
Will the Browns Win Without Nick Chubb?
The Browns not only lost another game in Pittsburgh, but they lost star running back Nick Chubb to a gruesome leg injury too. Now, they must face a tough Titans team that loves to force teams to throw.
The Titans are a 3.5-point road underdog with a total of 41 points. Those numbers are subject to change in light of the Nick Chubb injury, though most running backs do not move the needle that drastically, but we already like the computer’s prediction so much that we’ll stick with this pick regardless.
Tennessee Titans vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, September 24, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Cleveland Browns Stadium
Browns Flop After Chubb Injury
You rarely would say this in an NFL game, but the Browns probably win in Pittsburgh if Nick Chubb did not get injured in the first half. He was shredding the Steelers with 64 yards on 10 carries. While backup Jerome Ford had a 69-yard run later in the game, his other 15 carries went for 37 yards, which is more in line with his career numbers before Monday night (23 carries for 48 yards).
The consistency of the offense fell apart from that point, and Deshaun Watson finished with 6 sacks and 3 turnovers, including a pick and fumble returned for crushing touchdowns.
Watson has not lived up to his end of the bargain at all in Cleveland, and doing so without Chubb will be even harder for him. This is a big loss on the scale that only Titans fans can relate to if Derrick Henry went down. These teams both rely on their star back more than most these days.
The Titans also love to shut down the run and force teams to be one-dimensional and pass all game long. The Browns are simply not cut out for that with Watson, who showed poor accuracy on so many sideline passes in Week 2.
The Titans Have Their Own Issues
We can talk about how the Titans love to shut down the run and make teams throw, but they have their own issues on offense too. Ryan Tannehill had a rough outing in New Orleans to start the season, then looked much better against an underwhelming Chargers defense.
But the Browns have a better defensive front and will challenge Tannehill, who still took 5 sacks against the Chargers despite his good accuracy day. The Browns can certainly clamp down and get after him with Myles Garrett leading the way. Tannehill’s 12.1% sack rate this year would be his worst season yet.
Speaking of star backs, Derrick Henry only has 40 carries for 142 yards this year (3.6 yards per carry). This is not 2019-21 anymore when the Titans could reliably score in games like this one.
The Pick
Even if the total creeps down to Over/Under 38 or so, we still like the under in this one. It should be a real dogfight in the trenches with both quarterbacks looking like sack merchants this season. Pass rusher Harold Landry’s healthy return is bad news for Watson. Go for the Under at the NFL odds.
Score Prediction: Browns 18 – Titans 17
NFL Pick: Under 41 (-108) at BetAnySports (visit our BetAnySports Review)
Saints Eye 3-0 Start in Green Bay
The Saints’ plan to give Derek Carr the best situation of his career has worked out so far as the team is 2-0 behind a dominant defense. They will travel to Green Bay, fresh off a 25-24 loss in Atlanta where the team blew a 12-point lead in the 4th quarter.
The Saints are a 2-point underdog with a total of 43 points.
New Orleans Saints vs. Green Bay Packers
Sunday, September 24, 2023 – 01:00 PM EDT at Lambeau Field
Saints Have Defense to Shut Down Packers
The Saints have the NFL’s best scoring defense since the midpoint of the 2022 season. New Orleans has not allowed more than 20 points in 10 straight games, the longest streak in the NFL since the 2013-14 Seahawks (11).
Green Bay is scoring well under Jordan Love this year despite some big injuries at the skill positions, but his play has been erratic too. Love is only completing 55.8% of his passes, but his accuracy and tendencies to force balls into tight windows have yet to result in any interceptions.
He also has just 2 sacks, though the Falcons only allowed him to pass for 151 yards without Christian Watson and Aaron Jones last week.
The Packers will play their first home game this week, but the aura of Aaron Rodgers dominating at Lambeau Field is gone here. This is also not the awful defense of past years for the Saints. This is a very inexperienced quarterback taking on a hot defense while his best weapons may still be bothered by hamstring injuries.
Coming Together for Derek Carr?
The Saints are not blowing anyone out yet, but the offense showed some improvement in Week 2 in Carolina with Taysom Hill rushing for 75 yards on a night where Jamaal Williams was injured.
In the 2nd half, Carr remembered how talented his wide receivers were and finally hit a few big plays. This is really one of the best wide receiver trios in the league because of the full complement of skills involved.
Chris Olave is a legitimate No. 1 who can do it all. Michael Thomas is an excellent route runner underneath and has reliable hands. Rashid Shaheed is a burner who can win on the deep balls and still be a very high catch-rate receiver for Carr.
Things should get even better as Carr gets more comfortable and running back Alvin Kamara comes back from suspension. He is still out this week.
The Pick
With the edges in quarterback experience and defensive prowess going to the Saints, this is a good chance for a road team upset, or at least a cover in a tight game. The Packers already blew a 12-point lead last week, so it would not be unrealistic to see them falter against the quarterback who has the most 4th-quarter comeback wins in a player’s first 10 seasons in history.
The Saints are going to win a lot of games against unproven quarterbacks this year, but with the defense already showing this level of play for half a season last year, it will be hard to say this is a fluke.
It is the offense that must step up and deliver for this team to be a serious contender. Winning in Green Bay would be the best win yet this season for the Saints.
Score Prediction: Packers 18 – Saints 17
NFL Pick: Saints +2 (-110) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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