Last week we had the Rams, 49ers, and Cardinals, with the first two getting fairly easy ATS covers while the last one was a gut punch, considering I had already counted my cash in that 3-unit wager. A 2-1 ATS week should have been 3-0 if it were not for the Cardinals falling asleep at the wheel in the fourth quarter against the lowly Panthers.
Fortunately, my best NFL expert pick of the day was on the 49ers with Mac Jones pulling the trigger for 4 units. The Rams cashed for 3 units, but that merely mitigated the ungodly loss I suffered with the Cards laying 6 ½ for 3 units.
Overall, it was nevertheless a winning week in which we won +3.64 units after paying the -112 vig on the Cards for 3 units. Had it not been for that game and the Steelers getting nipped by a hook (laying 2 ½ and winning by 34-32 over the Jets) in Week 1, we would be sitting with a 5-1 ATS record and up several units.
Hopefully, the bad beats are out of the way, and we get some luck to bounce our way this week. Let’s go!
Square Biz
In 1980, Teena Marie released a single called “Square Biz,” and every time I take a look at my NFL picks that are inevitably dominated by laying the lumber, that song echoes through my mind. Last week, every single play I made was a favorite, and I’m ashamed to say, this week is no different.
But on the flip side, sometimes handicappers try to be “wise guys” and bet on the underdog because it’s the “sharp side.” Look, I get the allure of making picks that the masses poo-poo; they’re the squares, the sheeple if you will, who routinely lose to the books, but I’m not going to play the role of a sharp if I’m honestly not invested in the play.
With that, I am about to lay the lumber again on all three of my NFL expert picks for Week 3, and hopefully, my analysis will convince you that I’m not a square—a rectangle, perhaps, but not a square.
Swinger’s 2025 NFL Record: 3-3 ATS (+1.03 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
Swinger’s NFL Best Bets
These best bets are based on sharp analysis and line value, with our three selections for Week 3 featuring two favorites we’re backing in strong spots and one short road line we love. As always, we hunted down the best available odds at the top sportsbooks for each pick.
- Falcons -5 (-110)
- Seahawks -7 (-115)
- 49ers -1.5 (-108)
Falcons vs. Panthers (+5)
Here we have the league’s worst team at home facing an opponent that I am quite bullish on and bet to win their division in my futures. That’s right, I wagered 5 units on Atlanta to go over 7 ½ wins and bet 2 ½ units on them to win the NFC South. It’s all documented in Swinger’s Week 1 picks at the end of the article.
Therefore, I am unabashed in my support for the Falcons to cover the number in this spot despite it being a road game, and I am getting a lousy number compared to the 2 ½ I could have laid in the very early lines. However, let’s also note that as of this writing, Bovada is the only major offshore book to be holding the line at -5 while the others have installed the Falcons as 5 ½ point favorites. It pays to shop around, kids.
Yes, I faded the Panthers last week, and they covered in garbage time against the Cardinals (did I mention that already?) after being down 27-3 in the third freakin’ quarter! But this time, they won’t be so lucky.
You see, the Falcons added Leonard Floyd and two first-round rookies to their pass rush and have a solid defensive backfield. This is bad news for Carolina’s Bryce Young, a highly touted No. 1 overall pick who will eventually be relegated to a serviceable backup.
Atlanta’s electric running back, Bijan Robinson, will have a field day against this anemic Carolina run-stop unit, which will mean the clock will tick, and there won’t be enough garbage time for the Cats to cover the number this time around. If I were getting Atlanta -2 ½, this would be a 5-unit max play.
Expert Pick: Atlanta Falcons -5 (-110) for 3 units at Bovada
Saints vs. Seahawks (-7)
If you’re an astute reader of this column and reflect on my picks from last week, you may be sensing a pattern. I fade bad teams, and that’s what I did last week when I bet on the Cardinals against the Panthers and the 49ers versus the Saints. As Yogi Berra famously said, “It’s déjà vu all over again!”
Yes, I’m fading the Saints, but I do believe the Seahawks are a solid squad this year, which means this appears to be a very good spot to lay the touchdown. Most books are dealing the Hawks -7 ½, but again, Bovada is giving us the value that we want, so we’ll go with them.
Seattle’s Sam Darnold had a nice rebound game against the Steelers after a clunker against the 49ers in the opening week. He rallied the troops after being down 14-7 and tossed a pair of touchdowns en route to a 31-17 victory over Pittsburgh on their home turf.
Now Darnold will return home amidst the fan friendlies and will face a woeful Saints’ secondary. He should be able to pick and choose his targets and pad his stats. Conversely, New Orleans quarterback Spencer Rattler will face a fearsome pass rush, and the ground game won’t work either, as Seattle has a tough run-stop unit. I see a double-digit blowout here, but because I’m not wholly convinced Darnold is capable of taking advantage, this is a 3-unit play for me.
Expert Pick: Seattle Seahawks -7 (-115) for 3 units at Bovada
Cardinals vs. 49ers (-1.5)
If you didn’t see a pattern from last week to this, then you need to have another cup of coffee because I took the Niners last week, and I’m back on the Mac Jones bandwagon again in Week 3. Do I have a bit of an axe to grind against the Cardinals for blowing my ATS cover? Perhaps, but I’m starting to figure out Kyler Murray is merely an ordinary quarterback and not among the top-tier, although never did I think he was elite.
Unfortunately, Jones will be without the services again this week of tight end extraordinaire George Kittle and will have to feed his backup, Jake Tonges, for those little outlet passes when the heat gets heavy. However, the Cards are like the bullies on the block. They beat up the weak kids and cower against the tough kids. Arizona was 2-7 against good teams last year and only beat the 49ers when Christian McCaffrey was out and their roster was decimated.
It’s payback time, my babies, and it will be fun to watch the Niners ravage that Saints’ offensive line and dirty Murray’s uniform…over and over again.
Expert Pick: San Francisco 49ers -1.5 (-108) for 3 units at Heritage Sports
The Woodman’s Picks (2-0 ATS)
The Woodman emerged from his cave after rasslin’ bears in Kazakhstan in Week 1, where he was incommunicado and delivered no picks. He made up for it in a big way by picking two ATS winners—the Giants (+6) and Bucs (+2 ½) in Week 2.
Now he puts his undefeated streak on the line with a selection on the Washington Commanders -3 ½ (-110) over the Las Vegas Raiders at BetOnline.
Start a New Sportsbook Account
The Week 3 NFL odds I posted today don’t stay stagnant forever. The odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the point spreads you see written here on the Rams, 49ers, and Cardinals may not be around by gametime.
Therefore, it is important that you get the sharpest line available, and the only way to do that is to get down immediately on the games and make sure you have an active account.
That’s right, make certain your account is funded, and perhaps get accounts at two or more sportsbooks so you can compare the numbers. Shop around, dare to compare, and make sure to get down at a place you trust and at the best offshore lines or odds available.
More Picks from Our Experts
Check out Donnie RightSide’s top Week 3 picks below, and don’t forget to visit our YouTube channel for more daily betting insights!
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
