There are few things in life better than when a plan comes together, or a handicapping script in this case. Last week, I envisioned a 20-16 Patriots win over the Broncos, and had the weather not turned inclement, that score may have been right on the money.
Nevertheless, I felt the line had swelled too far on Denver, sans Bo Nix, so I took the home hound with the Broncos +5 for two units and under the posted total of 42 for four units. That was a six-unit ATS winner, and it worked out perfectly as the Pats defeated the new-age Orange Crush, 10-7, in a fourth-quarter blizzard.
Unfortunately, the Rams done me (and the Woodman) dirty as we grabbed the small number with Matthew Stafford and the boys from LA. Unfortunately, the final score saw the Seahawks claim a 31-27 victory, just a bit too far for us to cover our four-unit wager.
When the conference round matchups ended, we went 2-1 ATS and made two units, but that was mitigated by a two-unit moneyline bet on the Rams. So, the end result was like kissing your sister—no harm, no foul, no lust.
Without further ado, let’s get to our Super Bowl NFL picks and hope we can end the season with a few bucks added to our impoverished bankroll.
Swinger’s 2025 NFL Playoff Record: 4-5 ATS (-4.97 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
Super Bowl NFL Picks At-a-Glance
This week’s Super Bowl NFL picks boil down to one game, the Seahawks vs. the Patriots. Who’d a thunk it? Well, certainly not I, as evidenced by a preseason bet I made on the Broncos to beat the Rams, which paid +20,000! That C-Note I bet would have magically turned into the cost of a modest Nissan, but alas, if ifs and buts were candy and nuts, what a fine, fine Christmas we’d have.
I’m not sure who counts candy and nuts as being a panacea for a delightful Christmas, but that’s the old (very old, I might add) saying, and it rhymes, so there’s that.
Let’s have one more go at the rodeo and try to see our NFL picks for the Super Bowl get across the finish line!
New England Patriots vs. Seattle Seahawks (-4.5)
Sunday, February 8 – 6:30 PM ET
“Hollywood’s calling for the movie rights. Singing, “Hey babe, let’s keep in touch. Hey baby, let’s keep in touch!”
The previous sentence is a lyric from an old Blues Traveler song, ‘Run-Around,” but it feels apropos to this 2025 edition of the New England Patriots. As implausible as this script is, Mike Vrabel and the New England Patriots authored what is essentially a sci-fi novel, and the only chapter left unwritten is the final one.
We can analyze this Seattle vs. New England matchup until the cows come home, but here are two things I do know. The Patriots have a better defense and a better quarterback. With all due respect to Seattle, this meeting is a bit like manifest destiny, a sense of divine mission, if you will. Although football is religion in many parts of the country, I like to believe I am more pragmatic when handicapping.
However, sometimes, there are forces bigger than all of us. And although I hardly rank a Rudy-esque season by a team that has gone from the outhouse to the penthouse as being worthy of such divine intervention, I can’t help but buy into the notion that the Patriots are on the precipice of football immortality, and who am I to stand in the way of history?
Expert Pick: Patriots +5 for 4 units (-111) at Bookmaker
Expert Pick: Patriots +197 for 2 units at Bookmaker
Expert Pick: Drake Maye Over 224.5 Passing Yards for 2 units (-115) at Bovada
The Woodman’s Picks (13-8 ATS)
Just like me, the Woodman cast his lot with the LA Rams +2½ and got edged after the Seahawks took a 10-3 lead in the first quarter. Yes, the Rams would take the lead, but that seven-point difference early in the game told the tale of what was to come. Seattle ultimately drew away to a 31-27 victory, and although it was close, it was not enough for the Rams to get the cover.
The Woodman sits at 13-8 on the season, which means he is connecting at a 62% ATS clip for the season. Not bad, I say, despite the recent setback. In this game, the Woodman is going back to his roots, literally, as he was raised about a half hour north of the Razor, home of the Patriots.
His heart is pounding that the Pats will make all his dreams come true, and his wallet is banking on New England to at least cover the number. Let’s see how it all turns out as his boys from Boston will be featured in the NFL’s biggest game on its grandest stage.
On behalf of the Woodman and Yours Truly, thank you for reading Swinger’s Picks throughout the season, and we will look forward to next September when we can do it all over again.
The Woodman’s Super Bowl NFL Pick: Patriots +5 (-111) at Bookmaker
Place your NFL Super Bowl Bets Now
The Super Bowl NFL picks that I posted today don’t stay stagnant forever. The odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the point spreads and totals you see written here may not be around by kickoff.
This is why it’s crucial to secure the most accurate line available and ensure your account is fully funded and prepared for action!
Find the Best NFL Odds at Offshore Sportsbooks
To make the most of our NFL picks for the Super Bowl, shop around for the sharpest lines available at the best offshore sportsbooks. Getting the best price can turn a loss into a win over the long season.
For this week’s top picks, take a look at the NFL odds at Bookmaker, Bovada, and Heritage Sports. Having access to multiple books ensures you’re getting the best possible number, and in this game, every half-point counts.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
