Sunday’s best NFL bets involve a pair of defensive stalwarts, the Houston Texans traveling to Foxboro to take on the New England Patriots. This is the early game on Sunday and is the marquee matchup of the two games being played.
There is, undeniably, one team that is oozing value in this spot, and a solid player prop bet is the bonus. So, let’s dig deep into this AFC showdown and make some money as we bury the books!
Best Bets for Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots
One of our best bets for Sunday keys on the strengths of the New England offense and their MVP candidate, second-year quarterback Drake Maye. We all know that Houston has made their bones this season with their tough-as-nails defense, but let’s understand that the Patriots’ defense has not been shabby either.
Would it surprise you to learn that New England has allowed just 11.75 points per game over their last four contests, including a 16-3 shutdown of Justin Herbert and the LA Chargers in the Wild Card round? The Patriots are finally getting healthy, and the return of defensive end Milton Williams and linebacker Harold Landry has only helped the cause.
The Patriots’ opponent on Sunday, the Houston Texans, wore out the Steelers in the final frame of their game. Entering the fourth quarter, Houston held a narrow 7-6 lead; however, it was easy to see the momentum shift as the Pittsburgh offensive line ran out of gas and the Texans’ D took over.
When the dust settled, Houston returned a fumble for a touchdown and added a pick-six in the process to score 23 unanswered points, drawing away to a 30-6 win over Pittsburgh to advance to this showdown with the Patriots.
Sunday Afternoon Odds (Patriots -3)
When this game opened, the oddsmakers installed the Patriots as 2 ½ point home chalk, but the NFL odds at all of the major online sportsbooks have received plenty of Patriots money, which means this number has drifted north to the magic number three at most books and even to 3 ½ at others like BetOnline and Bovada.
Those who are leaning towards betting on New England will want to shop with those books offering them -3, while those who believe Houston holds the most value will want to get down with those books that are hanging +3 ½ because a half point can be the difference between a push and a cover.
Sunday Morning Picks (Patriots -3)
According to the gaming algorithm, the Patriots are predicted to prevail, 23-21, over Houston. That final score will make Houston backers happy, but those who trusted that the Patriots would roll will be crying in their beer after the game.
After taking another look at the NFL odds, it is easy to understand why an influx of money has been wagered on New England. As stated, the Patriots’ defense has continued to improve, and right now, they may be as good as Houston’s.
But even if the Pats are a click below Houston on the defensive side of the ball, New England’s offense is so superior that it truly tilts the balance of power dramatically in favor of the home team.
We should also come to grips with the fact that CJ Stroud is a shadow of who he was in his rookie season, and he is simply an average quarterback in this league who is prone to getting fumbleitis.
We know the Texans have an excellent defense, and we know that New England has allowed under a dozen points per game over their last four contests. We’ll give Houston a slight edge, but now look at the respective offenses.
- Total Offensive Yards: New England (No. 3 at 379.4) vs. Houston (No. 18 at 331.5)
- Total Yards/Play: New England (No. 1 at 6.5) vs. Houston (No. 25 at 5.3)
- Rushing Yards/Game: New England (No. 6 at 129.8) vs. Houston (No. 22 at 112.0)
- Passing Yards/Game: New England (No. 4 at 249.6) vs. Houston (No. 14 at 219.5)
- QB Rating: New England (No. 1 at 109.5) vs. Houston (No. 17 at 87.9)
- Points Scored/Game: New England (No. 2 at 28.1) vs. Houston (No. 13 at 24.1)
Expert Pick: New England Patriots -3 (-118) at Heritage Sports
Texans’ CJ Stroud Under 212.5 Passing Yards
As we review the NFL player props, we find that Bovada is offering Stroud’s passing yardage at 215.5 yards, which is just a click below his regular-season average of 217 yards. But here are three reasons why CJ Stroud will go low on Sunday.
- Playing in the cold weather
- Playing against an elite defense
- Playing without his No. 1 target, Nico Collins, who was injured (concussion) against the Steelers and has been ruled out of this game.
Expert Pick: CJ Stroud Under 215.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
To Get the Best Lines, You Must Have Multiple Accounts
Getting in the game with an opinion that makes you cash is what it’s all about. The only way to do that is to open an account at one or more of the most trustworthy, reliable, and reputable sportsbooks in the industry, like the several online sportsbooks featured at Bookmakers Review.
Shop at the Most Trustworthy Sportsbooks
Remember, the lines and odds don’t stay stagnant. They move, so why not review our Sunday morning football bets on the Bills and over Dawson Knox’s receiving total when the getting is good? Lock in on a line at one of the best online sportsbooks like Bovada and Heritage Sports, and never miss out on value.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
