The 2025-26 NFL playoffs continue this Saturday with a great AFC Divisional Round game between the No. 1 Denver Broncos (14-3) and No. 6 Buffalo Bills (13-5). It’s actually a rematch from last year’s Wild Card game, which Buffalo won 31-7 at home.
Still, Mile High is always a tough place to play, and the Broncos are the healthier, better-rested team. Let’s look at the current NFL odds for this AFC Divisional Round matchup with our best football predictions for tonight.
Best Bets for Denver Broncos vs. Buffalo Bills
Tonight’s NFL odds are for a pivotal game in the AFC as the Broncos and Bills have what it takes to go the distance this year.
The Bills are a sentimental favorite because of Josh Allen, the best quarterback left in the playoff field, and their playoff experience, but the Broncos boast a strong defense, an experienced coach in Sean Payton, and they’ve won a record 12 games after trailing this season.
Most Denver games are tight in 2025, and Bo Nix is 7-1 in game-winning drive opportunities. Alas, the Bills are 8-0 at holding up one-score leads in the fourth quarter (best ratio in 2025), so it could be a game like last week when the Bills intercepted Trevor Lawrence late in Jacksonville to secure the first road win and game-winning drive in the playoffs in the Allen era.
The Broncos are also the most penalized team, and no quarterback has gained more EPA on penalties than Allen, so watch out for possible pass interference penalties extending drives as the Bills try to win with three healthy wide receivers after injuries have wrecked their depth.
It’s an exciting matchup with a lot of potential for a dramatic finish.
Saturday Odds: Broncos -1.5
The odds have been on the move here with the Bills opening as a 1.5-point road favorite before going to a 1.5-point road underdog. However, the closer we get to Saturday, the more it looks like it could be Denver -1.
Denver was only 7-9-1 ATS this year, while Buffalo is 9-9 ATS. But can Bo Nix outduel Josh Allen? Nix is 1-8 SU in his career against teams with a winning record who score more than 17 points, and the Bills usually top that number with ease under Allen in the postseason.
The total for this matchup is 46 points. The over is just 7-10 in Denver games, but with the Broncos struggling to score in the last month, the bye week rust factor, and Buffalo’s injuries (including an ailing Allen), there’s definitely a lean towards the under here.
Saturday Picks: Bills +1.5
For our best Saturday Divisional Round prediction, we are backing the Bills on the road as it’s their year in the AFC without the Chiefs around.
It’s not like Allen was ever going to beat that secondary led by Patrick Surtain II with Tyrell Shavers, Joshua Palmer, and Gabe Davis. This game was always predicated on Allen’s legs, his No. 1 rushing offense with James Cook behind that great line, the tight ends, and short passes to Khalil Shakir that get YAC.
Buffalo is uniquely built to play well against the Denver defense, which doesn’t generate many turnovers, without relying much on the wide receivers.
On the other side of the ball, can Sean Payton get past his passing hubris and put the game on a rookie running back in R.J. Harvey to attack that run defense? The Jaguars lost to Buffalo in part because they didn’t run it enough and relied on an erratic Trevor Lawrence.
Well, Bo Nix has done well in his first two years, but he’s still erratic, too.
The Bills have made great second-half adjustments all year and have shut teams down cold in the fourth quarter. Look for them to do the same to Nix and pull out a tight road win to advance to another AFC Championship Game.
Expert Pick: Bills +1.5 (-115) at Bovada
Bills’ Josh Allen (Anytime Touchdown Scorer)
This is a great red zone matchup as the Bills rank No. 3 on offense, converting a red zone drive into a touchdown 66.2% of the time. That’s obviously boosted by the way Josh Allen runs the Tush Push so effectively.
He did it last week for 2 more rushing touchdowns, and he even had a 10-yard run on the sneak to set up his game-winning touchdown run in Jacksonville.
But the Denver defense is No. 1 in the red zone, allowing a touchdown just 42.6% of the time. They have allowed a handful of 1-yard touchdown runs, including a pair to quarterbacks (Trevor Lawrence and Daniel Jones).
Allen has shown he’s willing to put his body on the line this postseason no matter how many injuries he’s piling up in the last few weeks. If the Bills get down there, there’s no question they’re running him in again to score a touchdown. He should be the most likely Buffalo scorer here.
Expert Pick: Josh Allen Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-114) at Bovada
Your Gameplan for Saturday NFL Divisional Round
For your Saturday NFL Divisional Round gameplan, we like the Bills to edge out a low-scoring win in Denver. For NFL player props, we’re backing Josh Allen to score another rushing touchdown on the Tush Push.
You can always play our Saturday NFL picks or make bets on different games this weekend. Just understand that timing is everything in sports betting. If you create an account at different offshore sportsbooks, then you should be able to find the best prices and lines for the rest of the NFL playoffs. Make an account at Bovada to find competitive odds for NFL games like Bills vs. Broncos.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
