For a guy who brags about never talking about bad beats or using them as a crutch to justify a piss-poor record, I’ve been yapping about them quite a bit this season. I guess it’s because of the sheer volume, dare I say, the deluge of bad beats I’ve taken this year that has got my gums flapping.
I always say that the only person who wants to hear about a bad beat is the person telling the story. Yet, here I am, crying like a schoolgirl the day after her boyfriend broke up with her. I speak, of course, of my two-unit wager last week on the Green Bay freaking Packers.
Entering the second half, the Packers were up 21-3 over the Bears, and I’m only laying a point. Well, not so fast, Swinger; that’s hardly a done deal based on what’s happened to me this season, as the Bears ultimately won the game, 31-27, and I, of course, lost.
The only saving grace was that we also went over 45 ½ in that one for two units, which mitigated the damages. However, I also bet on the Rams -10, and, of course, they failed to hold onto a 14-point lead en route to a 34-31 win, which was well short of a cover that sunk me for four units.
Without further ado, let’s get to our Divisional Round NFL picks and pretend the bad beat never happened. Who’s with me?!
- Swinger’s 2025 NFL Playoff Record: 1-2 ATS (-4.36 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
Divisional Round NFL Picks At-a-Glance
This week’s Divisional Round NFL picks are locked and loaded. The weekend slate features a doubleheader on Saturday, with the Bills and Broncos battling in the early game while the 49ers and Seahawks tangle in the late game.
Sunday’s contests will see the Texans and Patriots exchanging unpleasantries in the midafternoon affair, while the Rams and Bears will wrap up our NFL picks for the Divisional Round.
It’s a small, yet robust, buffet of weekend football, so let’s grab a plate and feast!
Swinger’s NFL Best Bets
Houston Texans vs. New England Patriots (-3)
Sunday, January 18 – 03:00 PM ET
A fan should never bet on his home team because an intellectual judgment should not be colored by emotion. That’s a fancy way of saying if you bet with your heart, you’re likely to get your heart broken and your pockets emptied.
Thus, my aversion to betting on the Patriots. I’m a Boston kid, born and raised, who loves the boys in Foxboro. Yet, you rarely see them show up in this column because of my partisan persuasion when it comes to all things Patriots.
However, this one is too good to pass up.
Don’t Let the Box Score Fool You
If you saw the score but didn’t watch the game, you would think the Texans rolled over the Steelers last week. Well, here’s the deal. The score was 7-6 entering the final frame before the Texans dropped 23 points in the fourth quarter, 14 of which came via a fumble return and a pick-six.
CJ Stroud fumbled five times and recovered three of them while tossing an interception. The Patriots’ defense has gotten better as the season has progressed, while Stroud is just a click above serviceable in my opinion.
Drake Maye didn’t have a great game last week against the Chargers, and rookie blindside tackle Will Campbell had arguably his worst day as a pro. Nevertheless, the Pats won 16-3, and Maye launched a dime to Hunter Henry in crunch time to seal the deal.
Edge Where It Counts
The Texans will undoubtedly bring the heat, but Houston’s defense is only marginally better than New England’s, while the Patriots’ offense is several clicks above the Texans’. That’s it in a nutshell; plus, the home field advantage the Patriots will enjoy at The Razor.
I see this being a low-scoring affair with a final score of Patriots 22 – Texans 13.
- Expert Pick: Patriots -3 (-118) for 4 units at Heritage Sports
- Expert Pick: Under 41 (-108) for 2 units at Heritage Sports
LA Rams vs. Chicago Bears (+3.5)
Sunday, January 18 – 06:30 PM ET
Have you ever witnessed the intractability of a political debate? Neither side will budge, and if one says “black,” the other will reflexively say “white.” It’s more of an emotional bloodletting than an intellectual tête-à-tête, but that’s how I feel about the LA Rams.
I can’t shake this team. It’s an emotional thing because I bet them in the preseason to go to the Super Bowl against either the Bills or the Broncos, and I believe they are head and shoulders above any other NFC team.
That logic cost me last week despite the Rams drawing out to 14-point leads twice last week against the lowly Panthers, only to watch them eke out a miserable 34-31 victory, well short of the 10 points I laid.
Well, here we are again. It’s not only a ringing endorsement for LA, but it’s also a cool fade of the Bears, who I refuse to believe are as good as their record. This matchup is a perfect storm, a dynamic confluence of events, if you will.
Matthew Stafford will play like the MVP he has been all season, and we’ll watch the Rams torch the Bears at Soldier Field on Sunday.
Expert Pick: LA Rams -3 ½ (-115) for 3 units at BetOnline
The Woodman’s Picks (13-6 ATS)
The Woodman’s money train keeps a-rollin’ all night long, and last week was more of the same, as the 49ers not only covered as five-point underdogs, but they also won the game outright in a 23-19 wild card round upset of the reigning Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles.
The man has now covered 13 of his 19 opportunities, which means 68.4% of his ATS picks have been winners. Wow, what a season! And we still have three more weeks to access his prodigious powers of prognostication.
My Boston friends say there’s “nothin’ sweetah than a repeatah” and in that vein, he is going back to the same well as last week and telling anyone who will listen that the Niners will soar to victory over the Seahawks—but grab the points just in case!
The Woodman’s Divisional Round NFL Pick: 49ers +7 ½ (-110) at Bovada
Place your NFL Divisional Round Bets Now
The NFL picks that I posted today don’t stay stagnant forever. The odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the point spreads and totals you see written here on the Rams, Packers, and over in the Packers/Bears game may not be around by kickoff.
This is why it’s crucial to secure the most accurate line available and ensure your account at any reputable sportsbook is fully funded and prepared for action!
Find the Best NFL Odds at Offshore Sportsbooks
To make the most of our NFL picks for the Divisional round, shop around for the sharpest lines available at the best offshore sportsbooks. Getting the best price can turn a loss into a win over the long season.
For this week’s top picks, take a look at the NFL odds at BetOnline, Bovada, and Heritage Sports. Having access to multiple books ensures you’re getting the best possible number, and in this game, every half-point counts.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
