When asked, I always want to hear the bad news first, so I’ll give it to you straight. Last week, we failed to cover under 41 in the Texans/Patriots game for two units. The two teams combined for 44 points, and although it was close, this does not constitute a bad beat. A bad choice, perhaps, but not a bad beat.
However, the gambling gods refuse to relent, and my bankroll is perpetually underwater, much like Poseidon, but that’s a Greek mythological discussion for another day. I refer, of course, to the last second, fourth down, Hail Mary launched by Caleb Williams, whose prayer was answered and wound up in the loving arms of the saintly Cole Kmet in the end zone.
So much for my Rams -3 ½ and those three units I ascribed to another in a series of brutal beats. In case you missed it, LA won the game in overtime by three points, and that hook dug deeper and harder than a highlight reel at the AVN Awards.
Ah, right. The good news. We hit our biggest play on the board for four units when the Patriots continued to roll and covered as three-point home chalk over the Texans. Contain your enthusiasm.
Without further ado, let’s get to our Conference Championship Round NFL picks, and let’s hope the gambling gods are getting bored of me and have found another source of amusement.
Swinger’s 2025 NFL Playoff Record: 2-4 ATS (-5.97 units using a 1-to-5-unit system) @SwingeratBMR
Conference Championship Round NFL Picks At-a-Glance
This week’s Conference Championship Round NFL picks are loaded in the chamber and ready to be fired. We’ve got a pair of intriguing matchups as the Patriots and Broncos will tangle in the thin air of Mile High in the midafternoon, while the Rams travel to Seattle to meet the Seahawks in the evening affair.
Believe it or not, and despite the shenanigans I’ve routinely suffered this season, I feel swaggy about my NFL picks for the Conference Championship Round, so let’s go bury the books!
New England Patriots vs. Denver Broncos (+5)
Sunday, January 25 – 3:00 PM ET
How much do you like Bo Nix? Do you think his absence is worth a touchdown? I believe he’s better than many give him credit for, but far less than the adoration he inspires from Broncos fans. I’d say he’s outside the top 10 in terms of starting quarterbacks but near the bubble.
Okay, so now he’s out with an ankle injury, and everyone’s hair is on fire, including the oddsmakers, who have now installed the Patriots as 5-point road chalk from 1½-point road dogs before Nix’s injury was announced.
I dunno, amigos, I love the boys from Boston, but this seems like overkill to me. Mile High is not the easiest place to play, and Jarrett Stidham hasn’t been hanging around the league for six years because he’s a bum. Although he is not as mobile as Nix, he has a decent arm, based on what I can recall from his tenure in New England as a fourth-round pick out of Auburn.
The Broncos defense will either slow down the juggernaut that is Drake Maye and the Pats, or they won’t. How’s that for savvy handicapping analysis? I think the sheeple will reflexively believe that the sky is falling, and those 14 wins Denver accumulated in the regular season, as well as the shootout victory over Buffalo, will suddenly be forgotten.
Well, I’m not one of the sheep, and as much as I love the Pats, this spread is too high on the home hound in this one.
Watch this be a low-scoring game with the Pats eking out a win but failing to cover the number. As I gaze into my crystal ball, I see the final score as Patriots 20 – Broncos 16.
Expert Pick: Broncos +5 (-108) for 2 units at Heritage Sports
Expert Pick: Under 42 (-108) for 4 units at Heritage
Los Angeles Rams vs. Seattle Seahawks (-2.5)
Sunday, January 25 – 6:30 PM ET
I feel like I was handed a flute of champagne that was laced with arsenic last week when I decided the Rams would coast to an effortless win over those phonies from the Midway. It looked like a relatively easy cover until Caleb Williams made a Faustian deal for one last grasp at greatness that ensured the Bears would go into overtime, and I would lose, yet again, by the dreaded hook.
Well, tip that bottle of Cristal over one more time, bartender, because I’m going back to the same poisoned well. That’s right, I’m riding the coattails of the prodigious prognosticator below me and grabbing the points with the Rams.
Seattle looked like a house on fire last week when they eviscerated the Niners. But with all the injuries San Francisco had accrued, it wasn’t a shock that the Seahawks won, although the margin of victory was alarming.
However, Matthew Stafford is a stud, and he’s been to the big show before and won the grand prize back in February 2022 when he guided the Rams to a Super Bowl win over the Bengals. I may have doubted him then, but Momma didn’t raise no fool. Well, then again, you haven’t met my brother.
However, I am going to take the liberty of purchasing a half point and climb to the magical number three, so I don’t get hooked again!
Watch the Rams defeat the Seahawks…but grab the points just in case. Or grow a set and bet them on the money, like me!
Expert Pick: Rams +3 (-125) for 4 units at BetOnline
Expert Pick: Rams ML (+130) for 2 units at BetOnline
The Woodman’s Picks (13-7 ATS)
Last week, the Woodman got the pain over and done with early. The Seahawks ripped off a 95-yard kickoff return on the game’s first play and never looked back. Unfortunately, our buddy from parts unknown had the underdog 49ers, and it was never even close as Seattle cruised to an effortless 41-6 victory and punched their ticket to the NFC Championship game with the Rams.
I think that’s almost preferable to getting bad beat after bad beat like Yours Truly. The Woodman is maintaining his penchant for pups this week as he is staking his claim on the LA Rams to stay within the margins and cover as 2½-point road dogs or win the game outright.
I like the Rams as well, but I loathe this line. The only way this spread will come into play is if I bet on the Seahawks; then you know Seattle will win by two points or less, and I’ll get nipped by the hook. Otherwise, the Rams will either win or they’ll lose by a field goal or more.
Nevertheless, the books are hanging 2½, and although I know the Woodman would love to get +3, that’s just the way it is. Go Rams!
The Woodman’s Conference Championship Round NFL Pick: Rams +2½ (+100) at Bovada
Place your NFL Conference Championship Round Bets Now
The NFL picks that I posted today don’t stay stagnant forever. The odds, point spreads, and totals are dynamic, which means the point spreads and totals you see written here on the Broncos and Rams may not be around by kickoff.
This is why it’s crucial to secure the most accurate line available and ensure your account is fully funded and prepared for action!
Find the Best NFL Odds at Offshore Sportsbooks
To make the most of our NFL picks for the Conference Championship round, shop around for the sharpest lines available at the best offshore sportsbooks. Getting the best price can turn a loss into a win over the long season.
For this week’s top picks, take a look at the NFL odds at Bookmaker, Bovada, and Heritage Sports. Having access to multiple books ensures you’re getting the best possible number, and in this game, every half-point counts.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
