NBA Playoffs Best Bets for May 10: Defense Reigns in San Francisco
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Rainman M.
- May 10, 2025
Top NBA Pick: Timberwolves-Warriors Under 201 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
The sportsbooks have released their odds for today’s NBA action. First, the Celtics head to New York with their series tied 1-1. Then, the Timberwolves travel to San Francisco to try to go up 2-1 against the Warriors.
Read on for our expert advice and best bets of the day!
Boston Celtics vs. New York Knicks
Saturday, May 10, 2025 – 3:30 PM EDT at Madison Square Garden
Location and Value
People are high on the Knicks because they won both of their games in Boston. However, the Knicks are unique and must be treated as such. They are at their best on the road, where they are 5-0 in this postseason. Conversely, they are 1-2 at home.
This disparity — between their respective levels of success on the road and at home — will create betting value in the Knicks as an away team and potentially in their opponent as an away team.
Boston does have value as a road team because, as long as it doesn’t hold a multi-game series lead, in which case it often lacks sharpness and underperforms, it is strong away from home.
The defending champs are an experienced group who know how to win road games in the postseason: in the last two years, as long as they weren’t up in their series by multiple games, they are 5-0 on the road. In those five games, they won by seven points or more.
Boston Off a Loss
The Celtics will be at their best after a loss. Dating to last year’s postseason, they are 4-1 off a loss. Their defense always stays sharp, holding each of those five opponents to 98 points or fewer.
Three-Point Shooting
For the Celtics to cover the spread, their three-point shooting simply needs to reattain its usual level of excellence. They are missing threes at a rate that is statistically absurd because, throughout the season, they have ranked among the most efficient three-point shooting teams.
A counter to this point would be that the Knicks are forcing them to take tough shots. But the opposite has actually been the case. In the regular season, the Celtics ranked as highly as they did in three-point efficiency despite being one of the worst teams at generating wide-open three-point attempts.
In this series, they are generating wide-open three-point attempts at a higher rate. The variance has simply been against them to a radical extent, as they are converting a quarter of those attempts, whereas in the regular season they ranked fifth-best at converting wide-open three-point attempts. They converted them with over 15 percent greater frequency than they are doing in this series.
I get that it is easy to be down on the Celtics after watching their offense flounder two times in a row, but we have to stay objective and cling to the season-long numbers. It is the season-long stats that give an indication of how a team should be expected to perform because they encompass an 82-game data sample. We can’t let two games distort our perception.
With an extra day of rest, the legs of Boston’s shooters are going to be as fresh as they could possibly need to be, so they’ll be supremely ready to reattain a high performance level.
NBA Pick: Celtics -5.5 (-110) at BetOnline
Turnovers, Rebounds, and Inside Scoring
Boston has been superior at limiting turnovers and at rebounding. The Celtics, with their focus maximized by the must-win situation, will continue to be careful with the basketball and assert themselves on the glass. Winning the possession battle gives them a greater margin for error that they won’t need with their improved three-point shooting.
The Celtics can do more inside by feeding Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porzingis more. Holiday was very efficient inside in both Games 1 and 2. After recovering from his illness during Game 1, Porzingis proved solid inside.
But expect Jayson Tatum to be Boston’s best inside scorer. Tatum has been soft, as evident in his refusal to drive to the basket and to fight through contact to the extent that he should. Propitious matchup opportunities have been there for him and will continue to be there for him against either New York’s typical drop coverage that enables opposing ball-handlers to penetrate with momentum or against New York’s switching, which allows opposing ball-handlers to attack the defender they want.
Tatum is a professional who is thought of as a star. One has to expect him to rediscover his pride and to toughen up with the series essentially on the line tonight.
He will up his three-point percentage in alignment with the 11.4-percent higher three-point conversion rate that he sustained against a tough Orlando perimeter defense. Overall, he will bounce back after two straight bad games like he did last year in Game 3 against Cleveland and Game 3 against Dallas. He also bounced back from a bad Game 1 against Orlando to score 36 points in his following game. He has scored over 30 points in all of these bounce-back games.
NBA Pick: Jayson Tatum 30+ Points (+110) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Will New York’s Offense Improve?
One has to ask if New York’s offense is also primed to bounce back. But the Knicks scored as many points as they did in Game 2 — 91 — despite converting 7 of their 16 wide-open three-point attempts. They can’t be expected to make more wide-open three-point attempts.
Boston’s defense forces them into tough shots, especially with six-time NBA All-Defensive Team selection Jrue Holiday providing intense on-ball pressure. Derrick White has two All-Defensive Team selections to his name, and Jaylen Brown is a highly graded perimeter defender. The Celtics have the personnel to lock down New York’s three-point shooting.
Boston’s defenders simply have to focus more. They did already limit New York to 91 points in Game 2. They are committing lapses on defense, which plainly result from a lack of focus. These lapses are evident in different plays in transition and in the half-court, where they are slow to react.
In the second half of Game 2, it looked like Boston’s defenders had an excuse for their lack of focus: they were fatigued. But now they get an extra game of rest. With two days of rest, expect the Celtics’ defense to be at its best throughout the game.
Takeaway
Boston’s offense will score a lot more points by finally thriving from behind the arc. Its defense, buoyed by great perimeter defenders and intense on-ball pressure, will continue to stifle New York’s offense.
NBA Pick: Knicks Under 100 Points (-110) at Bovada
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Golden State Warriors
Saturday, May 10, 2025 – 8:30 PM EDT at Chase Center
Golden State’s Game 2 Point Total
Without Steph Curry for all of Game 2, the Warriors scored 93 points. I don’t see them exceeding this point total tonight.
They scored 93 points with Buddy Hield having a very efficient three-point shooting performance for a third straight game. A fourth is statistically unrealistic, as evident in his poor three-point conversion rates on February 10 and November 8.
Brandin Podziemski and Moses Moody have looked really bad in this series. They are struggling to create and make shots. Jimmy Butler is struggling against Minnesota’s bevy of solid defenders. He has two field goal makes out of 15 field goal attempts when guarded by Julius Randle, Anthony Edwards, or Jaden McDaniels.
He has himself stated that he is “for sure” still being negatively impacted by the rough fall that he sustained in his last series. Without Curry, there is nobody to take the offensive load off his shoulders, yet he is too banged up and is facing too difficult a defensive test to assume this much responsibility.
Golden State’s head coach is rotating in so many different players, as if it were the preseason, because he is desperate to find somebody who can catch fire. The Warriors, without an efficient Hield, without Curry, and with a banged-up Butler to carry them against Minnesota’s elite rim protection and excellent perimeter defenders, have too many young and raw or otherwise offensively limited players to reach 90 points.
Let-Down Spot for Minnesota’s Offense
Minnesota exploded for 117 points in its last game, a blowout win.
The Timberwolves, though, tend to flop on offense when their following playoff game takes place on the road. This year, they scored 85 points in Game 2 at the Lakers after they dominated Game 1.
The Lakers got more physical in that game. This is something that Golden State, which just advanced past a physical Houston team, can replicate. Without Curry, the Warriors know that their defense has to be top-caliber. Expect them to lean on their tough defense to bounce back tonight.
Golden State’s Underrated Defense
Since Jimmy Butler arrived in Golden State, the Warriors have had the best defense, as evident in their regular-season defensive rating when garbage time is factored out.
The Timberwolves’ three-point shooting is anyhow set to decline after it responded to being down 1-0 in this series by overachieving from behind the arc relative to their usual conversion rate.
They are noted for their depth of shooting talent, but Golden State has the antidote for that. Of course, there is Butler and the historically elite defender Draymond Green. But there is also Brandin Podziemski, who achieved a fantastic defensive rating in the regular season, and it is still 107.5 in this postseason.
Jonathan Kuminga, moreover, grades highly in isolation perimeter defense. Minnesota this year attempts threes at a very high rate with its collection of different shooters, but Golden State has the personnel to limit them.
Takeaway
Lacking offensive weapons and facing a team with great rim protection and perimeter defenders, Golden State will lean on its defense to be too tough for Minnesota to score against. While the Warriors won’t reach 90 points today, the Timberwolves’ offense will also be overwhelmed in San Francisco.
NBA Pick: Under 201 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
