We like our Monday Night Football bets in Week 17 for the Los Angeles Rams (11-4) taking on the Atlanta Falcons (6-9) following the shake-up in the NFC standings after the Rams lost 38-37 in Seattle last Thursday night. The Rams are currently the No. 6 seed despite having a fourth-quarter lead or tie in all 15 games this year.
Can Matthew Stafford cement or destroy his MVP campaign in Atlanta? Let’s break down this Monday night matchup with our best bets for tonight.
Best Bets for Los Angeles Rams vs. Atlanta Falcons
Tonight’s NFL odds look lopsided in favor of the Rams, but Los Angeles has blown leads of 19 (Eagles) and 16 (Seahawks) points this year as well as already losing a pair of games to the 49ers and Panthers as underdogs of more than 8 points, so anything is possible here when you’re going up against Mr. Monday Night Kirk Cousins with tight end Kyle Pitts in a contract year.
But the fact is the Falcons have won their last two games with 55 points on the board, Cousins is a veteran who can attack a Los Angeles defense that is struggling, and the Falcons have the pass defense that could give an immobile pocket passer like Stafford some big problems.
We’ll see how motivated the Falcons are to win after being eliminated from the playoffs, but they have some scheme advantages here to deal with the Rams, who may be missing wideout Davante Adams again.
Monday Night Odds: Falcons +8
The NFL odds saw the Rams open as an 8-point favorite, and it’s gone up to 9 at some sportsbooks. The Rams are a league-best 11-4 ATS this season while the Falcons are just 7-7-1 ATS. But like we said, the Rams have already lost some games outright as big favorites, and Atlanta should have some weapons around Cousins with top wide receiver Drake London returning last week for his first game in over a month.
The total for this matchup is 50 points as we could see some fireworks with two veteran passers who know where to go with the ball. The over is 4-1 when the Rams are a road favorite this season, and their last 4 games have all gone over 58.5 points. The Falcons have allowed at least 23 points in every home game this season except for the upset win over Buffalo (24-14), which feels like a full season ago.
Monday Night Picks: Falcons +8
For our best Monday night prediction, we’re fading the hype of the Rams as Super Bowl favorites and taking the Falcons to cover at home with the points. Atlanta coach Raheem Morris was Sean McVay’s defensive coordinator a few years ago, so these staffs know each other well, and Cousins with weapons is the kind of quarterback who can take advantage in the dome against a team that’s allowed 31+ points in 3-of-4 games.
Plus, the Atlanta pass rush has been great this year, and they have the secondary that can at least limit the non-Puka Nacua weapons the Rams have, which aren’t much in the form of household names if Davante Adams can’t go again on that bad hamstring. The Falcons slowed down Jacoby Brissett, the most prolific passer these days in Arizona, by holding him to 203 yards and a single touchdown pass last week.
Stafford is obviously better than Brissett, but don’t be surprised if this is a struggle spot for him in prime time against a top pass rush and with a defense limping into the playoffs for the Rams. Another close shootout isn’t what the Rams need here, because Cousins is the kind of quarterback who could upset them on a game-winning drive.
Expert Pick: Falcons +8 (-110) at Bovada
Rams’ Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted
For as great as Matthew Stafford has been this year, interceptions are one of the flukiest stats in the NFL. You almost saw it in overtime against Seattle when Stafford’s pass to running back Blake Corum bounced off his hands and was nearly intercepted at midfield before replay overturned it. That’s why interceptions have one of the worst year-to-year correlations of any quarterback stat. They’re too unpredictable.
Part of Stafford’s MVP case is that he’s only thrown 5 interceptions this year, which gives him a league-best 1.0% interception rate, a great number for a vertical passing attack. But that’s also easily a career best for Stafford, who has been known to throw some bad picks in his long career.
That’s why, deserved or not, we’re going to go with Stafford throwing a pick here on the road against a great pass rush that could force him into a mistake or bad ball that gets tipped and picked. Just consider it some regression to the mean as Stafford’s never been the kind of quarterback who is only going to throw 5 interceptions in 16 games.
Expert Pick: Matthew Stafford Over 0.5 Passes Intercepted (-122) at Heritage Sports
Your Gameplan for Monday Night Football
For your Monday Night Football gameplan, we like the Falcons to step up at home by covering the 8-point spread. For NFL player props, we still think Matthew Stafford is the MVP, but he’s likely going to throw an interception in this game against that pass defense.
You can always follow our Monday Night Football bets, or choose from other great Week 17 NFL games. Timing is very key to sports betting success. You should always keep up with the latest odds and line movements, and player props can always change during the week based on a player’s availability (like Davante Adams). If you sign up with different offshore sportsbooks, then you can price shop and get the best value NFL lines for your favorite bets.
If you choose to use top-rated offshore sportsbooks like Bovada or Heritage Sports, you’ll be able to bet on competitive odds for NFL games like Rams vs. Falcons.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
