The 2025 NFL calendar moves into December to put a wrap on Week 13 with a Monday night game between the New England Patriots (10-2) and New York Giants (2-10). It’s a chance to see two young quarterbacks on the rise in Drake Maye and Jaxson Dart.
Let’s break down this Monday matchup to find our best bets for tonight.
Best Bets for New England Patriots vs. New York Giants
Tonight’s NFL odds might be a little closer than you think when it’s the team with the best record in the NFL and one with the inverse, and one of the worst records. But these teams are closer than you think, as the Patriots have managed to uphold 6 one-score leads in the fourth quarter without blowing any leads yet for Mike Vrabel. Meanwhile, the Giants have already blown 5 leads in the fourth quarter, including a 10-point lead in Detroit last week.
But we’ll also see the return of Jaxson Dart from his concussion. Even with this offense firing coach Brian Daboll and losing its best wide receiver (Malik Nabers) and running back (Cam Skattebo), this offense is capable of big plays and scoring good points. We’ve seen it with Dart, and we’ve seen it with Jameis Winston putting a scare in clearly superior teams like the Packers and Lions the last 2 weeks.
We’ll see if the Giants can cover another spread and make this one interesting on Monday night, as the Patriots did just barely beat the Bengals’ bottom-ranked defense in Week 12.
Monday Night Odds (Patriots -7)
Remember when the Patriots were favored in 11 games this year when the earlier NFL odds came out in May despite coming off a 4-13 season? They opened as a 3-point favorite here, and the line has now moved to 7, if not 7.5 points. The Patriots are riding a 9-game winning streak, but 6-of-10 wins for them this year have been by fewer than 7 points, so they do win a lot of one-score games, which the Giants mostly lose (0-7 at game-winning drive opportunities).
The total for this matchup has moved a few points to 46.5 as both young quarterbacks are capable of scoring into the 20s. The Giants are allowing 27.8 points per game, which ranks 30th this year. New England is the only team in the NFL that has not allowed more than 27 points in any game this season.
Monday Night Picks (Giants +7)
For our best Monday night prediction, we’re going to trust the Giants to keep it close again and probably break their fans’ hearts again with a loss. But there are reasons to like them a lot against this line, including the way Dart has led the Giants to at least 20 points in 6-of-7 starts, and he’s actually one of the best quarterbacks the Patriots’ defense will have faced with their weak schedule this year.
The Patriots are only 2-3-1 ATS at home this year, and Drake Maye won’t have left tackle Will Campbell (knee), so watch out for the pass rush with Brian Burns, as Maye has taken a lot of sacks this year.
After playing a 26-20 game against the Bengals last week, don’t be surprised if we get that score again, as that’s close to what the books are predicting with these lines. Dart is capable of pulling this off as the Patriots won’t keep winning forever with an offense that rarely ever reaches 30 points and a defense that’s just begging to be exploited by a good offense.
Expert Pick: Giants +7 (-115) at Bovada
Giants’ Jaxson Dart (Over 202.5 Passing Yards)
Despite being a rookie who’s down on weapons and his head coach was fired, Jaxson Dart has passed for at least 191 yards in 6 straight starts. He’s thrown for 193 yards in Philadelphia against a good secondary, and he had a career-high 283 passing yards against a highly-ranked Denver defense. He’s also had 242 yards in Chicago, so his game travels, and the Giants rely on him a lot.
With a game script that expects the Patriots to control the game and play with a 2nd-half lead, this sets up well for Dart to keep throwing to keep his team in the game.
Mike Vrabel comes from that Bill Belichick philosophy of bend-but-don’t-break defense, so he won’t mind if Dart is putting up yards as long as it doesn’t lead to many points. That’s why we really like his over in passing yards to hit.
Expert Pick: Jaxson Dart Over 202.5 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
Patriots’ TreVeyon Henderson (Anytime Touchdown Scorer)
The Patriots scored just one offensive touchdown against the Bengals last week, and running back Rhamondre Stevenson is back in the lineup. But the Patriots were wise to roll with the hot hand as they gave rookie TreVeyon Henderson 18 carries last week compared to just 6 for Stevenson.
Henderson has some explosive ability, as he showed in Tampa Bay when he rushed for a pair of 55-yard touchdown runs. The Giants rank 32nd in both rushing yards and yards per carry (5.9) allowed, so no run defense is as vulnerable as this one.
The Patriots don’t run it that consistently this year, but this is a perfect matchup for them to get Henderson in the end zone again.
Expert Pick: TreVeyon Henderson Anytime Touchdown Scorer (-117) at Bovada
Your Gameplan for Monday Night Football
For your Monday Night Football game plan, we’re looking at a game that could be fun with the Giants covering the 7-point spread in New England. For NFL player props, we like Jaxson Dart to go over in passing yards and for TreVeyon Henderson to score a touchdown, as the rookies will shine.
You can copy our Monday Night Football bets at top-rated sportsbooks or bet on other NFL games and markets. Timing is a significant factor in sports betting success. You might be able to find a much more favorable line for Dart’s passing yards before the game, for example. That’s why it’s best to register with several offshore sportsbooks to do price shopping and make sure you get the best lines for your NFL picks.
If you are signing up at a top-rated offshore sportsbook like Bovada, you’ll find competitive odds for NFL picks like the ones covered above.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
