Do the Chicago Bears really belong in our Monday Night Football picks? It’s been a while since anyone took them seriously; these Bears have been sha-na-naing in the woods for the past decade-plus, enough to make you wax nostalgic for the Lovie Smith-Jay Cutler regime.
Yet here we are recommending Chicago for your Week 1 NFL picks this Monday night (8:15 p.m. ET, ABC) at Soldier Field. It’s a close call, but when you factor in those tasty player props, the Bears are worth at least a fun-size bet.
Should you take the point spread or the moneyline? All will be revealed shortly.
Monday Night Football Odds
We’re definitely steering clear of the total, which has dipped from 44.5 to 43.5 since the first Week 1 NFL odds hit the boards. We’re looking at multiple projections here at the ranch that have Monday’s game landing on or around 44 points.
As for the Bears, they opened as 1.5-point home faves for their 2025 season opener, but the tables have turned; the Vikings are laying as many as two points as we go to press. Chicago has likewise fallen from –115 to +105 on the moneyline.
It’s another one of those games where it might be better to avoid the small fave/dog and bet straight-up.
Monday Night Football Picks
The Bears are projected to beat Minnesota about 51% of the time, which translates to fair odds of –104 using the non-hallucinating BMR Odds Converter. If we’re reading the tealeaves correctly, we’re getting about a 1% edge on Chicago at +105, and closer to 2% for Chicago +1.5.
Normally, we need a 2.4% edge to generate plus-Expected Value from point spreads. But ah again: There’s that tasty –108 deal on vigorish at Heritage Sports.
Reverse the polarity on the Odds Converter, and you get 51.9% as the break-even point for this bet. You could also take Chicago +2 (–118), but that extra half-point isn’t worth 10 cents of juice.
Shop smart.
Expert Pick: Bears +1.5 (–108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Monday Night Football Prop Bets
Count on Santos’ Kicks
Since we’re taking the Bears, we’re also going to recommend the Over on relatively well-known Chicago players for your MNF props.
We’ll try not to explain this every time, but the concept here is to keep your NFL bets from looking too sharp, in case you’re dealing with a sportsbook that follows the “European” model of capping sharp action.
Easily, the best of the bunch is PK Cairo Santos going Over 6.5 kicking points.
How confident are you in this Bears offense? It’s probably better than Chicago’s minus-0.07 Expected Points Added per play at nfelo, but sophomore QB Caleb Williams still has plenty to prove, and they’ll be facing a Vikings defense that ranks second in the league at minus-0.09 EPA per play – remember, minus EPA is good on defense.
Expert Pick: Cairo Santos Over 6.5 Kicking Points (+100) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Rookie Loveland Ready to Shine
This is a tough matchup for taking the Over with most of the Bears’ offense, but Minnesota does let you dink and dunk, so we can see Caleb Williams having a field day with his top two tight ends, Colston Loveland and Cole Kmet.
If your book follows the “Nevada” model and takes sharp action, Kmet has a bit more edge for going Over his low, low total of 9.5 receiving yards. But you’ll want to bet Loveland otherwise – he’s the hotshot rookie with all the hype after playing three years at Michigan.
Put both in your NFL props if you really want to look like a generic Bears bettor.
Expert Pick: Colston Loveland Over 24.5 Receiving Yards (–118) at BetOnline
Get Sharp With Bookmakers Review
We see Loveland’s total for Receiving Yards as high as 28.5 at press time, so you’ll definitely want to shop around for the best price when you make your Monday night football picks. That’s why it behooves you to open accounts at multiple sportsbooks – always choosing from the highest-rated ones here at Bookmakers Review.
We’ve also got tons of valuable betting tools and sharp analysis elsewhere on this site, so take a moment to check things out, and we hope to see you back here for Week 2.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
