“You’re not going to beat Tarik Skubal twice in the same series.”
That’s the conventional wisdom heading into Game 5 of the American League Division Series between the Detroit Tigers and Seattle Mariners. Skubal is a virtual lock to win his second of back-to-back AL Cy Young Awards after leading the league with a 2.21 ERA and 6.6 bWAR (that’s Wins Above Replacement at Baseball Reference); Seattle outlasted Skubal to sneak away with Game 2, but as they say, lightning never strikes twice in the same place.
Poppycock. Our MLB picks today have the Mariners coming out on top, and judging by the early betting reports, we’re not alone.
MLB Best Bets Today
This is the only game on Friday’s schedule, so the only three “straight” bets we have to choose from are the moneyline, the run line, and the total. We’re not seeing any particular edge with the Mariners at +1.5 (–165); you’re paying a bit of a premium at that vig to hedge on Seattle. But the M’s do look tasty as +123 home dogs at Heritage, and we might even be tempted to hit that 5.5-run total for a small sum.
Bookmakers Review Has Your Back
Keep in mind as always that the baseball odds quoted here are the ones available as we go to press. You’ll probably see something a bit different by the time you read this; Bookmaker Review’s live MLB odds will help you find the best price on the board, and our non-partisan reviews will show you which sportsbooks are worth signing up for.
Mariners ML (+123) at Heritage
First of all, lightning can and often does strike twice in the same place. And I presume you’re familiar by now with the Gambler’s Fallacy; if you flip a fair coin 10 times and it lands Heads every time, the chances of it landing Tails the next flip are still the same 50% they always were.
That’s where we are with the conventional thinking on Skubal. The sharps know better; they’ve poured considerable money on Seattle to win Game 5, after Seattle scored a pair of runs off Tarik Skubal to win 3-2 this past Sunday as +135 home dogs.
Like most MLB playoff games, this is basically another coin flip – but a profitable one. The projections I’m looking at have the Tigers winning Game 5 between 51-53% of the time; run those percentages through the Ruthian BMR Odds Converter, and you get a range of –104 to –113 for the fair price on Detroit.
Is there enough potential profit margin to hammer Seattle at +123? Definitely, if you believe their chances of winning Game 5 are closer to 49%. Size your bets smaller as you get more pessimistic, but yes, we’re happily recommending the Mariners for Game 5.
Tigers vs. Mariners Over 5.5 (-120) at BetOnline
Friday’s total is a bit harder to pin down. The AI prediction at Bookmakers Review has these teams combining for 6.7 runs; the projections I have access to right now (proprietary in this post-Nate Silver age, sad to say) range between 6.1 and 6.6.
This is where things get pear-shaped. That lower projection at 6.1 runs gives us a tiny edge on the Under; once you get up to 6.6, now we want to pound Over 5.5 for value. And that’s already taking into account the –120 vigorish on the Over.
If you’ve played poker at all, you know the drill: Play the range instead of predicting a single hand your opponent might be holding. A smaller bet on the Over seems prudent here, and might even help mask the sharpness of your Mariners moneyline wager.
Granted, they did go Under 5.5 the last time we had this dance. But it’ll be George Kirby (3.25 xFIP during the regular season) taking the mound for Seattle in Game 5 instead of Luis Castillo (4.09 xFIP), and while Kirby has enjoyed better numbers overall, current Tiger batters have a combined .986 lifetime OPS off Kirby – and Kerry Carpenter (2.273 OPS) somehow has five home runs in 11 at-bats. Bet accordingly.
Tips for MLB Picks
- Pounce on the early lines before they change.
- Make sure you manage your bankroll.
- Assign the same wager amount to each of your MLB picks.
- Shop for odds and lines at all the most trustworthy and reliable sportsbooks right here at Bookmakers Review.
- Never chase losses. There is always tomorrow. You’ll be glad you did.
More Picks from Our Experts
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
