Sometimes it’s the easiest thing in the world to pick the best home run props on the MLB betting market. But we’re in a bind here at the home office; the only game on Wednesday’s evening slate with player prop odds available at press time is the one between the San Diego Padres and Seattle Mariners.
Other games will be on the board by the time you read this, but as it turns out, this Padres-Mariners matchup has three potentially profitable picks for our home run best bets. The first one in particular has some tasty betting value attached, and it’s a very familiar name to baseball fans on the Left Coast.
MLB Best Home Run Props Today
Here are the three most promising home run picks on the MLB props market for Wednesday’s game:
- Eugenio Suarez to Hit a Home Run (+310)
- Julio Rodriguez to Hit a Home Run (+470)
- Jorge Polanco to Hit a Home Run (+560)
Find the Best Sportsbooks at BMR
Seattle fans are especially happy to have Suarez back in uniform – and they’ll be even happier if they’ve chosen the right sportsbook to handle their home run props. Don’t stop at one; the more accounts you open at reputable locations, the more you’ll be able to shop for the best odds when you’re ready to make your picks. Bookmakers Review will point you in the right direction with our comprehensive sportsbook reviews and betting analysis.
Eugenio Suarez to Hit a Home Run (+310) at Bovada
M’s fans knew they needed another bat or two in the lineup if they wanted to truly compete for the World Series. Imagine their glee when they learned that Suarez was coming back to town. After getting sent to the Arizona Diamondbacks following the 2022 campaign, Suarez returned at this year’s trade deadline, and has four home runs in his first 23 games for the 71-61 Mariners to sit at 40 on the season.
Suarez will have to deal with Yu Darvish this Wednesday, but this is the 39-year-old version of Darvish, and he’s allowed 1.44 home runs per nine innings in nine starts, his 2025 debut having been delayed by elbow inflammation. Kick him while he’s down.
Julio Rodriguez to Hit a Home Run (+470) at Bovada
If you’re worried about Suarez’s 30.9% rate for homer games dipping with the move to T-Mobile Park, Baseball Savant ranks this venue No. 20 overall with a park factor of 93 for dingers, three spots ahead of Arizona’s Chase Field at 89. But we won’t play the blame game if you’d rather stick with Rodriguez and his numbers for 2025: 25 homers in 131 games, or 19.1%.
That might be less impressive than Suarez’s output, no matter how you slice it, but if you run 19.1% through the glorious BMR Odds Converter, you get +424 out the other side. We’re getting a good price for our home run prop because Rodriguez is 0-for-9 lifetime versus Darvish with no walks and two strikeouts. Don’t let that tiny sample scare you at this point in Darvish’s career.
Jorge Polanco to Hit a Home Run (+560) at Bovada
The third of our home run best bets today is yet another Mariner; Bryan Woo (1.30 HR/9) is starting for Seattle, so we’re trying to squeeze what value we can out of fading Darvish before the betting market catches up – and before San Diego’s bullpen (0.80 HR/9, No. 4) comes in and spoils the fun.
With Polanco, you’re getting a guy with 20 homers in 109 games, or 18.3% – almost as good as Rodriguez. That translates to +446 in American odds; while it might look like Polanco has enough betting value to be No. 2 on our list, we’ve got him at No. 3 because he’s the highest-variance pick.
Tips for Home Run Props
Before we wrap things up for today, here’s a quick checklist to keep in mind when you dip into your bankroll and hit up those MLB props.
- Focus first on the matchup between the batter and the projected starter. Who’s hot? Who’s cold?
- Weather (wind speed/direction, temperature, humidity) plays a huge role, as do ballpark dimensions. The trick with the weather is it keeps changing from day to day, so make sure you have the latest forecasts before betting.
- Teams tinker with their batting orders all the time; those in the leadoff spot are more likely to accumulate five AB than anyone else. This is so important, you should consider waiting until much closer to game time to see what that day’s lineup will be.
- Sign up for multiple sports betting accounts as we suggested – and always choose one of the top-rated sportsbooks here at Bookmakers Review. Shop smart, bet accordingly, and make sure to hit that refresh button for our latest home run prop bet recommendations.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
