Mets vs. Braves MLB Best Bet: Expect Low Scoring Pressurized Battle
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LT Profits
- September 24, 2024
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We have a full slate of MLB betting matchups on Tuesday with all 30 teams in action. We return today with three plays from top sportsbooks that we feel currently hold great betting value at the present MLB odds.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Tuesday comes in the Peach State where our model likes a total when the Mets visit the Braves.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks:
New York Mets vs. Atlanta Braves
Tuesday, September 24, 2024 – 07:20 PM ET at Truist Park
It will be a playoff atmosphere in a series with major wild card implications, and we are betting the Under when Spencer Schwellenbach and the Braves host Luis Severino and the Mets.
Nice Rookie Season
Spencer Schwellenbach is having a nice rookie year, but like the entire Atlanta staff, the offense has not provided him with nearly as much support as was expected. Therefore, he has a 7-7 record despite a 3.61 ERA and a 3.35 xFIP that ranks 15th in baseball among pitchers with at least 100 innings.
And the fact that Spencer has tossed only 109.2 innings has him remaining strong this late in the year, as he allowed just one run and five hits in six innings last time out. He has an excellent K/BB ratio overall of 9.68/1.81 per nine innings as well as good soft/hard contact ratio of 18.2% / 29.4%. He has a 96.1 MPH fastball that rates 109 on Stuff+, and compliments that heater with four other pitchers he throws over 13% of the time.
Facing Declining Offense
Luis Severino has been a bit erratic, but the bottom line is he is 11-6 with a 3.79 ERA. His xFIP is a bit higher, but not insanely so at 4.16. His strikeout rate is not what it used to be at 7.89/9, but some of that is by design as he is inducing a 45.7% groundball rate. its highest point since 2017. To validate that point, he has added a heavy 95.6 MPH sinker to his repertoire that he has thrown 24.9% of the time.
And while Luis has been streaky, he is in a good cycle currently allowing three runs or less in six of the last seven starts, and he allowed four runs in the lone non-quality effort. He is facing an Atlanta offense that is solely to blame for the Braves being 1.5 games behind Arizona for the last wild card spot. That offense has gone from one of the best in baseball last season to ranking 19th in wRC+ and 18th in OPS against right-handers this year.
The Pick
Both teams will be under pressure in this series. The Braves are unexpectedly fighting just to make the playoffs, and the Mets are trying to hold their wild card spot at a half-game ahead of Arizona and two games ahead of the Braves. Add in two good pitchers and back the Under in Atlanta.
Predicted Score: Braves 3 – Mets 2
MLB Pick: Under 8 (-105) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
