We have a full 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups on Wednesday with all 30 teams in action. We are here with a play that, according to our MLB odds, has the most betting value at top-rated sportsbooks.
This value bet is based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a total in the Queen City in the Guardians vs. Reds matchup on Wednesday.
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MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Cleveland Guardians vs. Cincinnati Reds
Wednesday, June 12, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Great American Ball Park
In a matchup of two former top prospects fulfilling their potential, play the Under when Nick Lodolo and the Reds host Tanner Bibee and the Guardians in Cincinnati.
First Round Pick
Lodolo was a first-round pick for the Reds in 2019 and broke into the Major Leagues in 2022. He was solid as a rookie with a 3.66 ERA and 3.39 xFIP, and while the ERA ballooned to 6.29 last season, the xFIP was still strong at 3.78. Now in his third season, he has put things together and is ready to shine at the age of 26.
Nick is 6-2 with a sparkling 2.92 ERA and 3.54 xFIP. He has a career-low walk rate of 2.06/9 while still maintaining a very good strikeout rate of 9.63/9, and he raised his soft-contact rate while at the same time lowering his hard-contact rate by about 3% each. As a result, he has allowed a grand total of four runs in his last three starts covering 17.1 innings, and allowed three runs or less in seven of his nine starts this year.
Poised for Age
Bibee made his Major League debut last year and immediately showed poise that belied his age, going in to post a 2.98 ERA over 142 innings. And while that ERA is up a bit this year, it is still a decent 3.73 with a slightly better xFIP of 3.60. More importantly, he is showing some better metrics this sophomore season.
For starters, he has seen a spike in an already good strikeout rate to 9.77/9 from 8.94/9, while also improving his walk rate to 2.44/9 from 2.85. Tanner has three pitches he can throw for strikes including a 94.7 MPH fastball, accompanied by a lethal slider with a Stuff+ rating of 110 and a good change-up. That has helped lower his hard-contact rate to 27.2% from 30.2% last season while raising his swinging-strike rate to 12.5% from 11.1%.
The Pick
In a nutshell, there is a lot to like about these young starting pitchers, so much so that we are betting on the Under on Wednesday night.
Predicted Score: Guardians 3 – Reds 2
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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