MLB Pick: Giants ML (-104) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have a normal 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Friday with all MLB teams in action. We are on a 9-4-1 run and, as usual, we have three more best bets for today’s slate available at top sportsbooks.
These best bets and the current MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model likes a side in the Bay Area Friday with the Dodgers visiting the Giants.
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Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Francisco Giants
Friday, June 28, 2024 – 10:15 PM ET at Oracle Park
Logan Webb of the Giants has been one of the better pitchers in the National League while Landon Knack of the Dodgers has an extremely lucky ERA. We are backing the Giants at a short price at home.
Top 10 in xFIP
Webb deserves much better than a 6-6 record given his 3.16 ERA, which is validated by an accompanying 3.10 xFIP that is ninth best in the Major Leagues. He has been victimized by a lack of run support which, as you will see in a bit, we do not expect to be the case tonight.
Logan has been a favorite of hours for years as we have felt he is very underrated for a pitcher with a career 3.37 ERA and better 3.19 xFIP over 756 big-league innings. And he has been just as good this year despite the .500 record. Webb does not blow people away with a strikeout rate of 7.78/9, but he has a low walk rate of 1.97/9 and a high groundball rate of 56.5%, sparked by a heavy 92.1 MPH sinker.
Undeserving ERA
Knack would probably not be in the majors right now if not for injuries to the Dodgers rotation, yet he somehow sports a 2.10 ERA through five starts covering 25.5 innings. That ERA is not “real” however when looking at his 4.77 xFIP and sub-standard peripherals. He has also been extremely lucky with a .183 BABIP and 91.7% strand rate.
That strand rate looks more absurd when considering Landon’s weak K/BB ratio of 6.31/2.81 per nine innings. And the BABIP is ridiculous when looking at his bad soft/hard contact ratio of 13.5% / 36.5% and modest 36.5% groundball rate.
The Pick
We do not expect Knack to continue to thrive in the Luck categories, so we are betting on the Giants to finally give Webb enough run support to secure the win on Friday.
Predicted Score: Giants 4 – Dodgers 2
MLB Pick: Giants ML (-104) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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