MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (+101) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We have a normal 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Friday with all MLB teams in action. We are 9-4-1 in our last 14 plays, and we are back with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available at top sportsbooks.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a side in Friday’s Yankees vs. Blue Jays matchup.
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks:
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for more MLB betting advice. Today, our expert has advice on the Yankees vs. Blue Jays and Guardians vs. Royals games.
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Friday, June 28, 2024 – 07:07 PM ET at Rogers Centre
We have one of our favorite kind of pitching matchups north of the border on Friday with opposite regressions expected from the two starters. We are backing Yusei Kikuchi of the Blue Jays to turn things around nicely hosting Marcus Stroman of the Yankees.
Less Walks
Yes, Kikuchi enters at 4-7 with a 4.00 ERA after lasting only two innings in his last outing while allowing four runs and eight hits. But he still owns a nice 3.37 xFIP keyed by an improvement to his walk rate that began last season. You see, he has always had a very good strikeout rate since coming to the Major Leagues from Japan in 2019, and that rate is good again this year at 9.29/9, but his success was held back by wildness.
That peaked in 2002 with a hideous walk rate of 5.19/9. However, he dramatically lowered his walks to 2.58/9 last season, resulting in career bests in both ERA (3.86) and xFIP (3.77). Now he has improved his command even more this year with the walk rate at 2.16/9, with the better K/BB ratio fueling the 3.37 xFIP. Add in his career-high 95.6 MPH on his fastball and we foresee more improvement with Yusei’s ERA converging toward the xFIP.
Very Lucky So Far
Stroman comes in at 7-3 with a 3.15 ERA, but he has not been nearly that good considering his 4.63 xFIP. He has benefited greatly from the Luck stats, with an 81.4% strand rate and .245 BABIP allowed.
Marcus has a poor K/BB ratio of 6.60/3.94 per nine innings while basically losing his velocity at the age of 33 with the fastball down to a mere 90.1 MPH. That has led to a swinging-strike rate of just 8.0% that is his lowest since 2015, as well as a high 30.9% hard-contact rate. With these metrics profiling a pitcher in decline, look for reality to kick in with a spike in the deceptive ERA as the Luck stats normalize.
The Pick
With Kikuchi having the best command and lowest xFIP of his career at age 33 and Stroman showing declining metrics at the same age, we are betting on Toronto as a small home underdog on Friday.
Predicted Score: Blue Jays 5 – Yankees 3
MLB Pick: Blue Jays ML (+101) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
