MLB Pick: Mariners ML (-125) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
First place in the AL West is on the line when baseball resumes its schedule on Friday, and we have a free MLB pick for Friday’s Astros vs. Mariners matchup.
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Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
Friday, July 19, 2024 – 10:10 PM ET at T-Mobile Park
With just one game separating the Seattle Mariners from the Houston Astros at the top of the AL West standings, the two division foes are set to battle it out in the most crucial series on the weekend MLB betting slate.
Better than 24 hours before the first pitch, Seattle still hasn’t officially announced its starting pitcher. Many expect it to be Luis Castillo (8-9, 3.53), and he’ll be opposed by Houston’s Hunter Brown (7-8, 4.39).
Bovada sent out an early action line near -140 on the Mariners before either pitcher was known, and that is probably a little high. Expect -125 or so on Seattle, with a 7-run total priced to the ‘over’ or 7½ juiced to the ‘under.’
Potential Rematch on Mound
If it is a Brown-Castillo mound matchup, it will be a rematch from a game at T-Mobile back near the end of May. The Mariners cashed -120 tickets with a 4-2 victory made possible by a 3-run 8th-inning.
Brown worked 6 innings of 1-run, 9-K baseball, ending up with a no-decision when the Astros’ bullpen blew beets. Brown also no-decisioned on Cinco de Mayo in Houston, allowing 2 runs while pitching into the 5th. Houston dropped a 5-4 decision as short chalk on the MLB odds.
The road has been unkind to Brown this season, his ERA away from home is more than 2 runs higher than at Minute Maid Park. Julio Rodriguez is 4-8 lifetime against Brown, plus a couple of walks, while Josh Rojas is 4-8.
Luis Castillo worked 6 innings and allowed 2 runs in the May 28th matchup against Brown. It was a mixed bag against the Astros last year, splitting his 2 starts against them by getting hit hard in a loss at T-Mobile Park and pitching very well in a win at Houston.
Yordan Alvarez owns Castillo, swatting 3 homers and batting .467 (7-15) over the years. Alex Bergman is the only other Houston stick to take Castillo deep.
Castillo is working with plenty of rest, having last pitched on July 11th in Anaheim. Logan Gilbert pitched last Sunday (July 14) and would be working on normal rest if the Mariners switch things up, while George Kirby – 2.11 ERA over his last 9 starts – last threw on July 13th.
Houston Sticks Coming Around in July
While All-Stars Jose Altuve and Yordan Alvarez have been consistent bats in the Houston lineup all season, the same can’t be said for the others. The Astros are showing signs of heating up, however, with a slight uptick in scoring so far in July.
Houston was averaging 4.7 RPG through June when the club was a game over .500; the Astros have since gone 8-5 while scoring just a hair over 5 runs per game in that span. As a result, totals have run 7-6 O/U at top sportsbooks this month compared to 31-46-4 prior to July.
Scoring has been an issue all season for the Mariners, and that has continued in July when Seattle has gone 5-7. The Mariners rank next-to-last in the American League averaging 3.87 RPG, and that clips is continuing in July with 3.91 RPG in their dozen games.
Julio Rodriguez is certainly doing his part to change that. Following a slow start to the season that saw him hitting .247 through June, Rodriguez is blistering the baseball in July with a .447 average (17-37) with 3 HR.
Season Series Notes & Betting Trends
It was the end of May when these two division rivals last met, and that 4-game series also took place in Seattle. The Mariners won 3 of the 4 matchups, with Houston’s lone dubya coming as a small underdog, and all 4 games finished ‘under’ the totals.
The Mariners and Astros met earlier in May at Minute Maid Park where Seattle won 2 of the 3 contests and totals ran 1-2 O/U.
Seattle also dominated Houston a season ago by winning 9 of the 13 matchups, though the Astros did manage to split the 6 contests that took place at T-Mobile Park. The Mariners have won 8 of the last 13 games played on their home turf.
Bettors playing the ‘under’ when these two get together in Seattle have done well recently; of the 17 games played in the Great Northwest since the start of 2022, 12 have come up short with another pushing the total. One of those ‘under’ winners came in the 2022 ALDS, a 1-0 Astros win in 18 innings.
The Pick
Bettors should check in with Jim Cantore for an update, but everything points to a fine Friday evening in the Emerald City – temps in the upper 70s, mostly clear skies, and a light northerly breeze (in from the center). I’m all over Seattle at -125 if Castillo gets the start, and I am willing to go a little higher on either Gilbert or Kirby with my pick.
MLB Pick: Mariners ML (-125) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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