MLB Pick: Rangers ML (+134) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
The MLB All-Star break is now over and after going 4-2 in our last six plays including a +212 winner Sunday, we return with three plays that we feel hold great betting value at the top sportsbooks.
These plays and the current MLB odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Friday comes in the Lone Star State, where our model favors a side when the Orioles visit the Rangers.
Check out our MLB World Series betting page for in-depth coverage, expert analysis, and all the excitement of this year’s most thrilling baseball showdown.
Baltimore Orioles vs. Texas Rangers
Friday, July 19, 2024 – 08:05 PM ET at Globe Life Field
Although Corbin Burnes has had a fine first year with the Orioles, Nathan Eovaldi has been the best pitcher on the Rangers’ staff this season and he is offering more strikeout potential. We are betting on Texas as nice home underdogs.
Pitching Like Ace
We consider Eovaldi the ace of the Texas staff this season and he deserves to have a better record than 6-3, given his 2.97 ERA and 3.42 xFIP across 16 starts. What we have probably liked the most about Eovaldi has been his consistency, as he allowed three runs or less in 13 of those 16 outings.
Nathan Eovaldi is one of those pitchers who combines a very good strikeout rate of 8.81/9 with a high groundball rate of 49.0%, a combo that should win you a lot of games. As good as that strikeout rate is, the scary part is it can actually improve with his swinging-strike rate at 13.7%, and he has also done a decent job managing his walks at 2.49/9.
Strikeouts Keep Dipping
Now, Corbin Burnes is the undisputed ace of the Orioles at 9-4 with a 2.43 ERA and 3.35 xFIP. However, as you can see, there is really not too much separation between the ERA and xFIP of these starters, and we feel certainly not enough to justify Burnes being such a decided favorite on the road.
And while Corbin has a good strikeout rate of 8.34/9, that still marks the first time the rate has been below one batter per inning since his rookie season of 2018. This will almost certainly mark the fourth straight year that his strikeout rate is lower than the previous season, as that rate was 9.29/9 last year.
The Pick
The bottom line here is that while we have Burnes rated slightly better than Eovaldi overall, the difference is not enough to justify the Orioles being big road favorites. Therefore, we are backing the Rangers to upset at nice odds in Arlington.
Predicted Score: Rangers 5 – Orioles 3
MLB Pick: Rangers ML (+134) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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