MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We have a 14-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Friday and we are 4-2 in our last six plays with a +212 winner Sunday. As usual, we have three best bets available at top sportsbooks for today’s slate.
These best bets and current odds are based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model is keen on a total in the City of Angels on Friday with the Red Sox visiting the Dodgers.
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Boston Red Sox vs. Los Angeles Dodgers
Friday, July 19, 2024 – 10:10 PM ET at Dodger Stadium
We are looking for a sneaky pitching duel in Los Angeles Friday night and are backing the Under when Gavin Stone and the Dodgers host Nick Pivetta and the Red Sox.
Surprising Success
There was a question at the start of the season whether or not Gavin Stone would even be a part of the Dodgers starting rotation, but he has gone on to make the most of his opportunity. Stone is a surprising 9-3 with a 3.26 ERA in 17 starts covering 96.2 innings, with that ERA ranked a commendable 24th in the majors among pitchers with at least 90 innings.
Granted Gavin’s xFIP is higher at 4.08, due in large part to a modest strikeout rate of 7.08/9. However, we see the potential for a possible spike in strikeouts with his swinging-strike rate at 11.3%. He also brings a solid soft/hard contact ratio of 17.0% / 27.6%, so if the expected increase in strikeouts comes to fruition, it would legitimize the ERA.
Nice Command
Nick Pivetta is back to being a full-time starter this season after splitting time between the rotation and the bullpen last year, and the results have been promising. Yes, he is just 4-6 with a 4.18 ERA, but his xFIP is noticeably better at 3.55 and he has a significantly better ERA on the road of 2.97, compared to 5.50 at home.
As usual, Nick’s metrics support the xFIP more than the ERA, especially his command ratio with a K/BB of 10.51/2.39 per 9 innings. Most telling though, and the key to the strikeout rate, is his exceptional Stuff+ rate of 131 for his fastball. And its movement makes it seem faster than its average of 94.3 MPH.
The Pick
So, with Stone having a surprisingly good season and Pivetta having great stuff and doing his best pitching on the road so far, bet the Under in Dodger Stadium on Friday.
Predicted Score: Dodgers 4 – Red Sox 2
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-105) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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