MLB Pick: Over 8 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
The MLB All-Star break is now over as we have a 14-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Friday. We are 4-2 in our last six plays including a +212 winner Sunday, and we are back with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which points to a total in Friday’s Phillies vs. Pirates matchup on top sportsbooks.
For in-depth coverage, expert analysis, and all the excitement of this year’s most thrilling baseball showdown, visit our MLB World Series betting page.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Friday, July 19, 2024 – 06:40 PM ET at PNC Park
We have never been high on Martin Perez of the Pirates, and we are backing the Over Friday when he faces off with Aaron Nola and the Phillies.
Pitching at True Bad Level
Martin Perez was always a guy whose ERA outperformed his weak peripherals before last season, which made him seem better than he really is. Karma finally caught up with him last year though as his ERA was more closely aligned with his xFIP, although the former was still a bit better at 4.45 vs. 4.96.
Things have now come full circle this year, as Martin’s ugly 5.15 ERA actually lags behind his 4.43 xFIP. Things have not changed otherwise though as he has his usually weak K/BB ratio at 7.00/3.07 per nine innings, miniscule swinging-strike rate of 7.1%, and nondescript soft/hard contact ratio of 15.6% / 32.1%.
We do not expect improvement against a Philadelphia offense ranked sixth in the league in wRC+ against southpaws at 116, and also sixth in OPS against them at .768.
Does Not Need to Allow Much
Now, we do like Nola as he is 11-4 with a 3.38 ERA and an excellent aligning 3.31 xFIP. However, if the Phillies torch Perez as we expect, Nola would not need to allow many runs to clear this Over. And while he has been very good, he has also been a bit lucky with a modest BABIP allowed of .252.
Aaron has allowed at least three earned runs in four of his last six starts, and a similar effort here should be enough to cash our ticket. Also, while he is facing a Pittsburgh offense ranked just 27th in wRC+ at 87, that figure improved to 101 while going 6-1 in the last seven games to reach the .500 mark at 48-48.
The Pick
Thus, we do not think Nola will escape totally unscathed, while the Phillies should feast on a declining Perez. Bet the Over in Pittsburgh in this spot.
Predicted Score: Phillies 7 – Pirates 4
MLB Pick: Over 8 (-105) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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