NBA Total Wins Picks for Grizzlies, Mavericks, Pelicans, Spurs and Rockets

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Tyus Jones #21 of the Memphis Grizzlies handles the ball against Reggie Bullock #25 of the Dallas Mavericks. Justin Ford/Getty Images/AFP.

The Southwest division might only have two genuine contenders heading into the season: the Grizzlies and the Mavericks.

The Memphis Grizzlies won the division last season, earning 56 wins. The Grizzlies were highly young last year but played so well with each other. When Ja Morant was injured, and out, the Grizzlies never missed a beat. It’s hard to imagine that the Grizzlies can do better than 56 wins this season.

The Dallas Mavericks finished last season with a 52-30 record. Dallas was the best team in the division, winning 14-2 against divisional foes. The other three teams in the division include the New Orleans Pelicans, San Antonio Spurs, and Houston Rockets. Only the Pelicans have a real chance to surprise this season.

Let’s break down each team in the Southwest. Which teams will go over their win total, and which will go under? The answers are below.

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Memphis Grizzlies Analysis

The Grizzlies are coming off a 56-win season. They even had success without Ja Morant last season.

The lineup looks the same as last year, with Morant, Desmond Bane, Dillon Brooks, Jaren Jackson Jr., and Steven Adams.

Brandon Clarke will also come off the bench with Xavier Tillman, Zaire Williams, Danny Green, John Konchar, Tyus Jones, and Killian Tillie. Maybe Kennedy Chandler gets a look as well.

On paper, the Grizzlies are underwhelming, but they’ll get to take on the Houston Rockets, and San Antonio Spurs enough times to boost their win total. If this team got 56 last season, I’d take the Over 48.5 this season at the top-rated sportsbooks.

NBA Pick: Grizzlies Over 48.5 (-140) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Grizzlies Over 48.5 (-140)
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Dallas Mavericks Analysis

I like the Mavericks to win the division this year. So if I’ve got the Grizzlies going over their total, the Mavericks better go over theirs.

Luka Doncic almost averaged a triple-double last season. He’ll have the same starting five around. However, Christian Wood will be his new starting center.

That’s a win-now move from the Mavericks, adding Wood to the roster. Dallas has no rising stars or rookies to rely on heading into the year.

But they’ve got depth with Spencer Dinwiddie, Davis Bertans, and JaVale McGee coming off the bench along with Maxi Kleber. Luka Doncic will lead the way. Take the Over.

NBA Pick: Mavericks Over 48.5 (-115) at BetOnline

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Mavericks Over 48.5 (-115)
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New Orleans Pelicans Analysis

The Pelicans are a borderline playoff team. If Zion Williamson comes back healthy and looks unstoppable, the Pelicans could be unstoppable.

Williamson has never played with CJ McCollum before. They’ll also close out the Big-3 with Brandon Ingram. McCollum, Ingram, and Williamson are all capable of scoring 30 points on any given night.

This team has a ton of depth with Jose Alvarado, Devonte’ Graham, and Garrett Temple. The ceiling is high for this ball club. So, following the NBA Odds, I’ll take the Over 44.5.

NBA Pick: Pelicans Over 44.5 (-140) at BetOnline

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Pelicans Over 44.5 (-140)
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Houston Rockets Analysis

The Rockets already traded away Christian Wood and won’t have John Wall back, either. Instead, they will roll with Kevin Porter Jr. and Jalen Green as their top two players.

Jabari Smith, Tari Eason, Ty Washington, and Darius Days are all potential breakout candidates for the Rockets heading into this year.

Candidates Breakdown

Houston’s going to be very young. But they’ve got some excellent pieces headed into this season. Smith could’ve arguably been the top pick in the Draft last year.

Tari Eason’s draft stock continued to rise before he was drafted. Ty Washington is coming out of Kentucky and Darius Days played with Tari Eason at LSU. They’ve got some chemistry.

The Rockets could win many games if the Houston lineup becomes Kevin Porter Jr., Jalen Green, Jabari Smith, Tari Eason, and Jae’Sean Tate. Coaching will matter. Growth will matter. But Houston has an intriguing haul of young talent on their roster.

NBA Pick: Rockets Over 23.5 (-115) at BetOnline

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Rockets Over 23.5 (-115)
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San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs look hopeless. Keldon Johnson will be the star player for this team. He averaged 17 points last season and is a really good player.

He’s not a superstar-caliber player who can earn his team wins on multiple occasions.

The Spurs did well in the draft with Blake Wesley and Jeremy Sochan, but again, those two won’t be able to push the Spurs above their potential.

Let’s take the Under for the Spurs, knowing how well the rest of the division could play this season.

NBA Pick: Spurs Under 22.5 (-115) at BetOnline

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.