With the playoffs on our doorstep, let’s take a look at the updated MLB odds board and see who’s got their World Series mojo working.
It’s finally over. As I write this, the last games of the 2022 MLB regular season have been completed. All the seeds have been set for the postseason, which begins Friday with the first Wild Card Round games.
If you haven’t had the chance yet, make sure to check out our award-dissolving article on the new playoff format and how you should adjust your MLB betting. In the meantime, here are the updated 2022 World Series odds at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) as we go to press:
National League: Dodgers Over Everything
The Dodgers deserve their place at the top of the MLB odds board. They won 111 games this year, breaking their team record, but they “should” have won more. Los Angeles posted a massive plus-334 run differential, which translates to 119 Expected Wins using Bill James’s Pythagorean formula.
As a reward, the Dodgers get to sit back and watch the Wild Card series between the fourth-seeded Mets and the No. 5 Padres. The Mets are nothing to sneeze at; they’re a 101-win team with quality hitting and starting pitching, although their bullpen only ranks No. 12 overall on the WAR charts at FanGraphs. New York have to like their chances here as –175 favorites on the series prices at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review).
Meanwhile, it was Atlanta vaulting over the Mets with a late-season burst to claim the No. 2 seed via a tiebreaker at 101-61, giving them the bye to the NL Division Series and a matchup against either the No. 3 Cardinals or No. 6 Phillies. This Wild Card series should be more competitive than New York-San Diego. BetOnline has the Cards priced at –133 to advance.
The Cardinals still have the advantage, though. They won 93 games this year, six more than Philadelphia, and their plus-135 run differential translates to a Pythagorean record of 96-66, while the Phillies only get a one-game boost to 88-74 from their plus-62 differential.
Neither team quite measures up to Atlanta (plus-180, 102-20 Pythagorean), but anything can happen in a short five-game series. Still, if there’s a bargain World Series pick in the National League, it has to be the Dodgers at +300. Our old friends at FiveThirtyEight give L.A. a 35% chance of winning the title, which works out to +185 using the perspicacious BMR odds converter. Accept no substitutes.
American League: Return of the ‘Stros
Are we ready to forgive Houston yet? I know I’m not, but at least if they win this year, it almost certainly won’t be because they stole the signs. The top-seeded Astros ended the regular season at 106-56, with a plus-219 run differential that translates to 108 Pythagorean wins.
While the former champs kick back and enjoy some Houston barbecue, the No. 4 Blue Jays will be hosting the No. 5 Mariners in the Wild Card Round. This matchup looks good for the Jays as –160 favorites at BetOnline, but they’ll be in a tough spot if Kevin Gausman (2.75 xFIP) doesn’t recover from the split-finger that caused him to be pulled from Sunday’s start against the Boston Red Sox.
Will anyone south of the 49th Parallel be paying attention to that series? Aaron Judge and the No. 2 New York Yankees have taken over most of the headlines, thanks to Judge hitting his 62nd home run of the season on Tuesday.
For a while there, it looked like the Yankees were in deep trouble with their injury situation, but they’re in pretty good shape now – bullpen notwithstanding – and while their 99-63 record doesn’t measure up to the Astros, New York also finished with 108 Pythagorean wins on a plus-240 run differential, 21 runs better than Houston.
Chances are the Yankees will mop up whoever survives the Wild Card battle between the No. 3 Cleveland Guardians and the No. 6 Tampa Bay Rays. There’s not much to choose from between those two, although 92-70 Cleveland gets the nod as –120 favorites at BetOnline as the hotter team of the two; the Rays ended the season at 86-76 after losing five in a row.
Who Are We Backing to Win the World Series?
As it stands, judging by the projections at FiveThirtyEight, none of these American League teams is worth a bet at their current World Series odds.
The Dodgers are that damned good, which is why we’re making them our official MLB pick here at the ranch. It’s just the right thing to do.
MLB Pick: Dodgers for 2022 World Series Winner (+300) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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