NFL Taking It Slowly Regarding Prediction Markets

The NFL is cautious on prediction markets, waiting for legal clarity as platforms like Kalshi expand and other leagues form partnerships.

Change of Heart

The NFL has always been protective of its brand, and it moves cautiously whenever a new opportunity presents itself. Recently, that opportunity presented itself as prediction market platforms are looking for league partners, but the NFL is not interested – at least not yet.

Roger Goodell, like NFL commissioners before him, denounced the evils of sports betting despite the league’s soaring ratings because of it. But he knew he could have it both ways, and all his self-righteous pontificating about the integrity of the game possibly being impeached by those betting on the games’ outcomes never deterred anyone from placing a bet, and more importantly, watching a meaningless game because of that investment.

Ratings and Revenue

More viewers equal higher ratings, which ultimately means more money for the NFL. Nobody knew that better than Roger Goodell, but all his fire-and-brimstone rhetoric regarding sports betting suddenly softened when the law prohibiting sports betting throughout the nation, PASPA (Professional and Amateur Sports Protection Act of 1992), was overturned by the Supreme Court in 2018.

Miraculously, Goodell had a change of heart after learning that this new industry would produce a generous revenue stream for the league and its franchises. The NFL quickly partnered with any mobile sportsbooks waving enough money at it and last year announced that Caesars Entertainment, DraftKings, and FanDuel had become the Official Sports Betting Partners of the NFL.

Legal Grey Area

Prediction markets are another new frontier opening up, but Goodell is taking a cautious wait-and-see approach. Firms like Manhattan-based Kalshi began entering alternate realities that no American financial exchange and prediction market had delved into before. It began with the presidential election in November 2024 and expanded to the Super Bowl in February 2025.

It was the latter that stirred the legal pot as state gaming authorities began to send cease-and-desist letters to the prediction market firms as they were operating without a sports betting license. Kalshi et al. contended they were governed by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission, and its federal authority superseded that of any state agencies.

Momentum in the Industry

The prediction market platforms have won enough early legal battles that they not only continue to operate but are now being joined by mobile sportsbooks like DraftKings, Fanatics, and FanDuel, which are joining them because they can’t seem to beat them.

And in October, the NHL became the first professional North American sports league to partner with the industry leaders, Kalshi and Polymarket. Keith Wachtel, president of NHL business, was not nearly as cautious as Goodell, stating the following:

“As prediction markets continue to evolve at a rapid pace, partnering with the two market leaders, Kalshi and Polymarket, provides a tremendous opportunity for the broadest fan engagement during the NHL season,” said Wachtel. “Polymarket and Kalshi are ideal partners as this category continues to grow and expand.”

What Comes Next

However, the legal challenges are far from over, and if the state gaming authorities’ legal objections do reach the Supreme Court, it will finally determine the legal clarity Goodell and many other potential stakeholders demand.

“We’d like to be first in the market in a lot of things, but in a lot of things, we’re willing to say, ‘We’re going to let things play out, we’re going to decide is this something we want to do,’” Goodell said. “The risk to the brand is something that we take very seriously, and we won’t risk that brand in something until we feel confident that we can do it, and if we see it play out in a way that works for us.”