MLB Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
We have a huge 16-game slate of Major League Baseball matchups for Wednesday including the Royals and White Sox playing a make-up doubleheader. As usual, we are here with our three plays for the day that we feel hold the most betting value at the current MLB odds available at the top-rated sportsbooks.
These picks are mostly based on our proprietary model, and our day starts relatively early at 03:07 PM ET. We have a total play north of the border in the Yankees vs. Blue Jays matchup.
For a thorough breakdown and preview of today’s MLB matchups, make sure to check out Bookmakers Review’s YouTube channel. Today, our expert has advice on the Rockies vs. Phillies and Guardians vs. Red Sox games.
If you’re considering placing bets on these matchups, keep reading for an in-depth analysis.
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays
Wednesday, April 17, 2024 – 03:07 PM ET at Rogers Centre
We have always liked Kevin Gausman of the Blue Jays, but he does not seem right at the present time. Look for a higher-scoring game than the total implies when the Jays host Marcus Stroman and the Yankees.
Poor Peripherals
Gausman comes off four straight seasons where he posted both an ERA and xFIP below 4.00, but he has looked more like Kevin “Gas-Man” this young season. He owns a ghastly 11.57 ERA and has lasted a total of just 9.1 innings through three starts. Yes, that is a tiny sample size, but his underlying peripherals are a red flag.
Most notably, Kevin’s average fastball velocity so far is a career-low 93.8 MPH, and even the velocities of his splitter and slider are down from last year. This has made Gausman extremely more hittable, with a horrific soft/hard contact ratio of 8.8% / 38.2%. Sure, those figures should normalize when the velocity comes back, but Gausman looks like an auto-fade for now until (if?) that happens.
May Not Need to Allow Much
The Yankees would be a tough matchup for even vintage Gausman given their 118 wRC+ against right-handers. Given this posted total does not seem to have caught up to Gausman’s physical state, the Bombers may approach this total themselves, leaving their starter Stroman not needing to allow much to clear this Over.
And that is a good thing as Marcus has a 2.12 ERA through three starts covering 17 innings. The xFIP is a bit higher though at 3.57, and his walk rate is higher than usual at 3.71/9. Also, the Yankee bullpen is only 24th in xFIP at 4.69, adding another avenue for the Blue Jays to tack on runs.
MLB Best Bet
So, the bottom line is we expect the Yankees to feast on a seemingly ailing Gausman, and for the Blue Jays to score enough runs to produce an Over in Toronto.
Predicted Score: Yankees 7 – Blue Jays 4
MLB Best Bet: Over 8.5 (-108) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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