MLB Best Bet: Diamondbacks ML (-117) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
We have a huge 16-game slate of Major League Baseball matchups for Wednesday including the Royals and White Sox playing a make-up doubleheader. As usual, we are here with our three plays for the day that we feel hold the most betting value at the current MLB odds available at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Our second value bet for Wednesday is also an afternoon affair at 03:40 PM ET, and this time our proprietary model sees value on a side in the desert as the Cubs visit the Diamondbacks.
For a thorough breakdown and preview of today’s MLB matchups, make sure to check out Bookmakers Review’s YouTube channel. Today, our expert has advice on the Rockies vs. Phillies and Guardians vs. Red Sox games.
If you’re considering placing bets on these matchups, keep reading for an in-depth analysis.
Chicago Cubs vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Wednesday, April 17, 2024 – 03:40 PM ET at Chase Field
We remain high on Brandon Pfaadt of the Diamondbacks this season while Jordan Wicks has been extremely wild. Thus, we are betting on the Diamondbacks as small home favorites for this matchup.
Metrics Still Good
A case can be made that Pfaadt was the best Arizona starter from August 1st onward last season, so his 6.48 ERA so far looks disappointing. However, we see this as a great “buy low” spot considering his more realistic 3.63 xFIP which tells the truer story. And as you would expect, his metrics better support the good xFIP than the ERA.
To wit, his velocity is either better or on par with last year for all five of his pitches, his hard-contact rate allowed is just 19.2% (38.6% last year) and his swinging strike rate is up to 12.8% from 11.3%. His results should start lining up with his peripherals against a Cubs offense that has been slightly below average against righties with a wRC+ of 98. Brandon also has the support of an Arizona bullpen that has posted a good 3.83 xFIP.
Too Many Walks
Wicks comes in at 0-2 with a 5.68 ERA, as his 19 strikeouts in 12.2 innings have been offset by eight walks. Jordan was never a huge strikeout guy in the minors, and his K-Rate was just 6.23/9 for the Cubs as a rookie last season. Thus, we do not think the current rate of 13.50/9 is sustainable for a guy still averaging just 92.9 MPH.
Now the walk rate of 5.68/9 will also come down, but Wicks did usually average in the high 3.00s in the minors so those are a legitimate concern. That becomes especially true facing a Diamondbacks’ offense ranked fourth in the majors in drawing walks at 10.8%. That should lead to an early call to the bullpen, where the Cubs rank only 19th with a 4.52 xFIP.
MLB Best Bet
Assuming Pfaadt starts to converge from his deceptive ERA to his good xFIP, we give Arizona the pitching edge from start to finish here so bet on the Diamondbacks.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 6 – Cubs 4
MLB Best Bet: Diamondbacks ML (-117) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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