MLB Best Bet: Rays ML (-122) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We have a huge 16-game slate of Major League Baseball matchups for Wednesday including the Royals and White Sox playing a make-up doubleheader. And as usual, we are here with our three plays for the day that we feel hold the most betting value at the current MLB odds at the top-rated sportsbooks.
Our final best bet for Wednesday is our lone night play for the day, as our model sees value on a side in the matchup between the Angels and Rays at 06:50 PM ET.
For a thorough breakdown and preview of today’s MLB matchups, make sure to check out Bookmakers Review’s YouTube channel. Today, our expert has advice on the Rockies vs. Phillies and Guardians vs. Red Sox games.
If you’re considering placing bets on these matchups, keep reading for an in-depth analysis.
Los Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays
Wednesday, April 17, 2024 – 06:50 PM ET at Tropicana Field
This is a matchup of two starting pitchers who are over-performing in the ERA department so far. However, we forecast Zack Littell of the Rays to be better than Reid Detmers of the Angels long-term and are thus betting on the Rays as moderate home chalk.
Too Much Luck
Detmers is a perfect 3-0 through three starts with a 1.04 ERA and 2.35 xFIP, with a spiffy K/BB ratio of 13.50/3/12 per nine innings. Before rushing out to make those Cy Young Award wagers, consider that while Reid has shown flashes throughout his career, he has been mostly inconsistent. Thus, we do not expect this great form to continue.
That is especially true when looking at the Luck stats, where Detmers has benefitted from a low BABIP allowed of .258 and a high strand rate of 86.7%. Besides those factors expected to stabilize, we also expect more walks from a guy with a career 3.51/9 walk rate. Reid has also never usually been a guy who works deeply into games, and the Angels’ bullpen has been a bit shaky ranking 20th with a 4.55 xFIP.
Righty vs. Angels Helps
Now, a lot of what we said about Detmers can also be said about Littell, who has a 1.17 ERA and 3.74 xFIP with a K/BB ratio of 8.80/2.93 per nine innings. However, we do like Zack’s long-term prognosis a bit more. Yes, he too has been extremely lucky in the strand department at 90.0%, but that gets offset in his case by actually being unlucky with a .341 BABIP allowed.
Also, a K-Rate spike from 7.40/9 last year to the current 8.80/9 is not unheard of at the age of 28, and his swinging strike rate is up a bit to 11.2% from 10.6%. Little has also raised his soft-contact rate to 15.9% from 12.8% while lowering the hard contact from 36.0% to 31.6%, so his improvement seems more “real” than Detmers.
Finally, while the Angels have been murdering lefties to the tune of 131 wRC%, that figure is only 98 against righties like Littell, an understandable effect of losing Ohtani.
MLB Best Bet
Therefore, we trust Littell to continue to pitch well while we expect Detmers to start crashing down, so bet the Rays at home.
Predicted Score: Rays 5 – Angels 3
MLB Best Bet: Rays ML (-122) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
Calculators
