UFC Vegas 99: Pereira vs. Hernandez Picks, Odds and Predictions
-
David Manyun
- October 18, 2024
Our Top Betting Pick for UFC Vegas 99
UFC Pick: Michel Pereira ML (+117) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
We’re just one week away from UFC 308, where the highly anticipated showdown between Ilia Topuria and Max Holloway will take place. But first, we have a short stop at the UFC Apex for another 11 scheduled bouts of MMA goodness.
This weekend’s UFC Vegas 99 card features a grappling savant in Anthony Hernandez, who is looking to extend a five-fight win streak versus a formidable middleweight foe in Michel Pereira, who’s riding an even more impressive win streak of eight fights.
Read on for our complete betting guide with an early preview of the UFC Vegas 99 main event clash between Pereira and Hernandez, including updated UFC odds from the top sportsbooks and our free expert UFC first-look betting picks, predictions, and analysis.
Michel Pereira vs. Anthony Hernandez
UFC Vegas 99 Middleweight Main Event Bout
UFC Vegas 99 Information
- When: Saturday, October 19, 2024 – 04:00 PM ET
- Where: UFC Apex, Las Vegas
- Scheduled Bouts: 11
- Main Event: Michel Pereira vs. Anthony Hernandez
- Moneyline Probability: Hernandez – 57.8% (-137) Pereira – 46.1% (+117)
UFC Vegas 99 Main Event Profiles
Michel “Demolidor” Pereira
Michel Pereira earned a reputation as one of the most wild fighters in MMA. Whether he was doing backflips off the cage, cartwheel kicks, or summersaults onto his opponents, a boring fight involving this man doesn’t exist. Although cardio concerns forced him to tame this style, the entertainment factor around his fight style remains.
Since Pereira shifted from welterweight to middleweight, he’s looked more impressive than ever. Currently, with an 8-fight win streak, his first three contests at 185lbs resulted in stoppage wins for the Brazilian. As he’s reduced the crazy behavior, he’s undeniably evolved, performing like a top-ranked fighter who’s gunning for championship opportunities in the future.
Pereira Best Moneyline Odds: (+117) at Bovada
Anthony “Fluffy” Hernandez
Stepping up to his first main event position since debuting for the UFC in 2019, some would suggest it’s about damn time! Why? Because ‘Fluffy’ Hernandez has been on an absolute tear in recent years. Five straight wins inside the octagon include three submissions and one KO/TKO win; most recently, we watched him strangle Roman Kopylov into a tap-or-go-unconscious situation.
The middleweight division has recently been one of the rapidly changing landscapes in UFC weight classes. Now that Hernandez has left his early career inconsistencies behind him, a significant victory this weekend could position him as a serious contender at 185lbs as we approach 2025.
Hernandez Best Moneyline Odds: (-135) at BetOnline
UFC Vegas 99: Tale of the Tape
| Anthony Hernandez | UFC Vegas 99 | Michel Pereira |
|---|---|---|
| 31 | Age | 31 |
| 6’0” | Height | 6’1” |
| 75” | Reach | 73” |
| USA | Nationality | Brazil |
| MMA Gold Fight Team | Affiliation | Scorpian Fighting System |
| 5 wins | Current Streak | 8 wins |
| 12-2-0 | Pro Record | 31-11-0 |
| 9-2 | UFC Record | 6-2 |
UFC Vegas 99 Skillset Analysis: Styles Make Fights
There’s one question we need to ask regarding this stylistic matchup: Does Pereira have the grappling defenses to fend off Hernandez’s ultra-talented ground game? One must assume that the answer is yes, not only because the Brazilian has many submission wins of his own but also because he does own the BJJ black belt to back it up!
For argument’s sake, let’s create a scenario where both men cancel each other out in the grappling realm because it’s an entirely possible situation as they could be equally skilled in this area. Then what are we left with? A striking battle…
I don’t believe there’s an MMA analyst out there who’s watched Hernandez’s footage and believes he stands a chance with Pereira in a kickboxing scrap. Yes, he could remain patient and rely on his durability and attack Pereira once he’s tired, but that’s easier said than done when you have a man who possesses such an endless variety of attacks on the feet, including the potential of releasing some fight-ending power via his varied kicks and punches.
Hernandez’ isn’t the best wrestler, so dragging the larger framed man in Pereira to the ground so he can attack submissions will be difficult to begin with. Once ‘Fluffy’ is left in the striking realm, he will struggle versus a powerful and dynamic striker in Pereira.
Pereira Moneyline: The UFC Vegas 99 Best Bet Formula
The available UFC odds have placed Pereira as the betting underdog, which, too many, is quite a surprise.
I believe we will witness a significant speed, offensive kicking, size, and power advantage for Pereira on the feet. We can also rely on his grappling attributes to avoid disadvantageous positions on the ground, making this bout a dog-or-pass fight, in my opinion.
UFC Pick: Michel Pereira ML (+117) [1u to win 1.17u] at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
