Twins vs. Rangers MLB Best Bet: Scant Scoring in Lone Star State

The first three games of this 4-game series have all gone Under the total, and we are betting on more of the same Sunday when Pablo Lopez and the Twins visit Tyler Mahle and the Rangers.

Rounding to Form

We had high hopes for Lopez entering the season, so his 11-8 record and 4.67 ERA are disappointing on the surface. However, he has pitched better than that, as his xFIP of 3.31 is the 10th best in baseball, keyed by an outstanding K/BB ratio of 9.93/1.93 per nine innings. Best of all, he is in great current form that has him regressing toward his fine xFIP.

Pablo allowed two earned runs in six innings against the Royals last time out, marking the fifth time in the last six starts that he allowed two earned runs or less! He is starting to induce groundballs again with that rate at 46.5% in those six starts. This raises his groundball rate for the season to 41.5%, and there is still room for more positive regression there with his career rate at 46.2%.

He is facing a Texas offense that has fallen off a cliff after being one of the better offenses in baseball when winning the World Series last year. This year, the Rangers rank 23rd in wRC+ against right-handers at 92.

Facing Former Team

Mahle was highly regarded when he came up with the Reds, but he has mostly fallen short of expectations. The Rangers signed him as a free agent, and he has accounted himself well over his first two starts with a 2.79 ERA and a fine strikeout rate of 8.38/9. That rate is validated by an 11.9% swinging strike rate.

Now, remember that we expect Texas to struggle to score runs against Lopez, so Tyler may only need to be decent to secure this Under. He certainly seems capable of that based on his first two starts in a Rangers’ uniform. And remember also that he was a member of the Twins over the last two years, so he should be quite familiar with the Minnesota lineup.

With Lopez in great current form and with Mahle solid so far and familiar with his opponents, we are backing a fourth straight Under in this series on Getaway Day Sunday.

Predicted Score: Twins 4 – Rangers 2

MLB Pick: Under 8 (-108) at Heritage Sports 

Under 8 (-108)

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