Timberwolves vs. Thunder Game 5 Best Bets: Both Teams Reassert Their Defense

Minnesota’s Game 4 Offensive Explosion

Recency bias is motivating bettors to expect a high-scoring affair tonight, but we have to examine the causes of the high scoring total in Game 4 and to interrogate whether those causes will persist tonight.

In Game 4, Minnesota’s role players stepped up. In particular, Donte DiVincenzo and Nickeil Alexander-Walker combined for 44 points. They both made five three-pointers.

One can’t expect either player to shoot well tonight, though. In these playoffs, Alexander-Walker is always unproductive from deep after a venue change or after a great shooting performance. 

DiVincenzo has struggled throughout the postseason and especially away from home. In two games in Oklahoma City’s venue, he is a combined 5-for-18 from deep.

The Timberwolves scored 88 and 103 points in the two respective road games in this series because their role players struggled from behind the arc.

Stopping Anthony Edwards

I expect a low point total from the Timberwolves tonight because they scored as many points in those two road games as they did because either Anthony Edwards or Julius Randle played very well, yet both players will struggle tonight.

In Game 4, the Thunder developed a new strategy against Edwards that limited his offensive production, and that is sustainable. Specifically, they strongly upped the rate at which they double-team him. They doubled him almost half the time.

When he managed to drive inside the arc, multiple defenders encountered him in the paint. He did not play poorly in Game 4 — which makes it erroneous to indulge tonight the classic favorite expectation that a superstar will “bounce back” — but simply wasn’t given opportunities to shoot from OKC’s defense. Of course, Alex Caruso is a lockdown defender, and so is fellow All-Defensive Team selection Luguentz Dort, whose full-court ball pressure likewise bothers Edwards.

Stopping Julius Randle 

Julius Randle scored five points in Game 4. He did not simply have an off night because he was “off.” Instead, he matches up poorly against the Thunder defense.

Randle’s slow style of play — which explains why previously New York and now Minnesota saw him as a good fit in their respective offenses — hurts him in this matchup. 

He likes to dribble a lot and to bully his way to the basket. He struggles to do either against Thunder rim protectors, guys like Chet Holmgren who are very lengthy and who metrics show to defend excellently, and against a Thunder defense that ranked first in defensive rating because it does a great job of digging. Off-ball defenders will harass players like Randle in the interior, never letting them breathe or get comfortable.

In Game 4, OKC also devoted extra attention to Randle, as evident in their inclination to double-team him.

I like the Thunder defense tonight because it has proven able to limit Minnesota’s two top scorers and because it won’t have to worry about their supporting cast on the road.

Minnesota’s Defense Will Adjust

We can’t allow Game 4’s point total to make us forget that the Timberwolves have had one of the highest-ranked defenses all year.

In Game 3, they held the Thunder to 41 first-half points, with the remaining 60 Thunder points coming when the game was clearly decided.

Oklahoma City adjusted in Game 4 by using cutting actions to create space inside. Of course, it helped that the Thunder also shot very well from behind the arc.

Minnesota’s defenders did not know how to handle those cutting actions, but this is a problem that is easily solvable in a film session. 

Creating a Wall

When the Timberwolves thrived defensively in Game 3, they did a great job of protecting the basket. They used four-time Defensive Player of the Year selection Rudy Gobert in the interior to limit Thunder scorers both around the basket and in the mid-range. Against their switch-heavy defense, Thunder players struggled to drive inside in the first place.

The Timberwolves must count on the Thunder to miss their shots. OKC was due to shoot well at some point, which they did in Game 4, but poor three-point shooting has been the norm for them in this series.

Defending the Perimeter 

Of course, with Gobert in the paint, the Timberwolves’ hope that the Thunder shoot poorly is well-reasoned and thus anything but blind. His presence inside helps Minnesota’s perimeter defenders, guys like Edwards, All-Defensive Team selection Jaden McDaniels, and Alexander-Walker, close out more effectively.

In Game 4, Minnesota’s perimeter defenders displayed poor effort when closing out, rotating, and navigating screens. Expect renewed determination from them tonight. They’ll also have more energy when their offense doesn’t commit 21 turnovers.

Turnovers breed a half-court game, which encompasses a lot of running and produces more fatigue that impacts defenders’ abilities because defenders have to sprint back on defense. Thunder shooters are relatively easy to close out on at this point in time. Thunder shooters with quick releases, like Isaiah Joe and Aaron Wiggins, are not playing or are barely playing in this series. With more energy, Timberwolves perimeter defenders will do a better job of contesting the Thunder shooters that are playing. OKC shooters will echo the discomfort and sense of hurry that Timberwolves shooters have displayed when struggling to make shots in this series.

The simple fact of the OKC shooters’ decline will also make it easier for the Timberwolves to concentrate more on limiting Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who scored all of 14 points in Game 3. In Game 4, Jalen Williams had one of his occasional great games, but this series and the last series show his tendency to flop after a solid performance.

Takeaway

The Thunder understand how to limit Minnesota’s top scorers and won’t have to worry about Minnesota’s role players. Expect the Thunder to be focused on defense as they seek to close out the Timberwolves at home.

But Minnesota has an elite defense and is going to give all it has left, with its players aware of the need to play with desperation. The Timberwolves will only have to worry about Gilgeous-Alexander, who they understand how to contain with their combination of high-quality on-ball defenders, their elite rim protector, and their devotion of resources inside the arc.

NBA Pick: Under 220.5 (-110) at BetOnline

Under 220.5 (-110)

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