The top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for Game 4 between the Timberwolves and Mavericks. For your NBA best bets, I recommend investing in the Timberwolves.
NBA Best Bet: Timberwolves +3 (-115) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Dallas Mavericks
Tuesday, May 28, 2024 – 08:30 PM ET at American Airlines Center
Game 3 Anomalies
The Mavericks won Game 3 by relying on anomalies. One anomaly is that they made and attempted 14 more free throws than Minnesota. Their success at the free throw line expresses their one-time inspired response to their free throw shooting problems in Game 2.
Another anomaly is that Dallas made five more threes than the Timberwolves, converting them at a 20 percent higher rate than Minnesota. This shooting disparity cannot be expected to continue, because the Timberwolves, on the season, have a stronger three-point conversion rate than Dallas.
Dallas is a team that likes to pack the paint to wall off dribble penetration, so it certainly presents a defensive structure that Minnesota can and must be expected to exploit from behind the arc.
In particular, Karl-Anthony Towns is too good to continue struggling to the absurd degree that he is. For one, he went 0-for-8 from deep in Game 3: which sets him up to bounce back in Game 4; his eight three-point attempts show that he hasn’t lost confidence in his shot.
Limiting Dallas’ Offense
With an injured Dereck Lively, Dallas looked less potent in the paint, both on defense given his versatility, and on offense with his scoring ability.
Lively is listed as a game-time decision for Game 4, and his absence would give a helpful but not a necessary boost to Minnesota’s outlook. Let’s consider that even with Luka Doncic scoring his usual 30 points Dallas has been held below 100 points in this postseason.
Therefore, liking Luka does not justify liking the Mavericks’ offense as a whole. The key for Minnesota will be to limit Luka’s supporting cast, including limiting Kyrie Irving somewhat.
Kyrie hasn’t scored consecutive 30-point games in the postseason, so one should expect him to decline, anyway.
But my main point is that Minnesota’s defense showed a lot of promise in Game 3 with its attempts to be creative scheme-wise and especially its ability to limit easy dunks that were obscured by Dallas’ unusually good shooting.
The Timberwolves’ plethora of excellent defensive pieces allows their head coach to get creative.
As lesser defenses have done in this postseason, defenses that lack the same good coaching, the same superior rim protection that Minnesota has with its four-time defensive player of the year, and that lack the same perimeter defense that Minnesota has with All-NBA defensive-caliber guys like Jaden McDaniels, Minnesota is going to finally show that it can hold Dallas to a low point total.
NBA Best Bet
In Game 3, Anthony Edwards finally approached 30 points in a game in this series. Being the superstar that he is, he’s responded to criticism of his play, and he’ll show more composure in crunch time in response to criticism of his impact in the fourth quarter.
With better shooting, which will further space out Dallas’ compressed defense for the likes of Edwards, Minnesota’s offense will do more than it needs to do given the capabilities of its highly-ranked defense.
NBA Best Bet: Timberwolves +3 (-115) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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