Tigers vs. Guardians ALDS Game 5 Best Bets: In Skubal We Trust

Tarik Skubal Is A Winner

Detroit starts Tarik Skubal today.

The Tigers are reliable winners when Skubal pitches; dating to September in the regular season, they’ve won the last four games in which he started.

During this four-game stretch, they’ve faced excellent starting pitchers. For example, Skubal led the Tigers to a victory, on October 1, when they faced the Astros who had Framber Valdez starting for them.

Valdez owned a 2.91 ERA, sixth-best, in the regular season. But he could not outduel Skubal.

Skubal’s Dominance

Detroit wins when Skubal starts primarily because Skubal is a dominant pitcher. He is in peak form right now and has been since September. Impressively, he has made three straight starts without giving up a run.

On September 24, he gave up two hits and zero runs in seven innings against the Rays. In his penultimate playoff start on October 1, he threw six shutout innings against Houston. Most recently, he shut out the Guardians over the course of seven innings. Over the course of these two playoff starts, he collected fourteen strikeouts and walked one batter.

But his dominance is much more extensive: he has allowed one run or zero runs in each of his last five starts. In his last seven starts, he allowed two runs one time while he allowed zero runs or one run in the other six starts.

His ERA was 1.52 in September, and it remains 0.00 in October.

What Makes Skubal So Good

Primarily, Skubal throws four pitches: a four-seam fastball, changeup, sinker, and slider. Exceptionally, he throws all of these pitches effectively; two of them yield a BA under .200, and the other two still yield a BA under .217.

Technique helps explain why Skubal’s pitches are so effective. He uses his hips and legs to inject a lot of force and momentum into his pitches. The way that he pitches helps him throw hard, and it also helps him be deceptive in the sense that batters struggle to pick up on the pitches that he throws.

When he pitches, his precision accompanies his solid velocity. He is often able to place hard pitches along the borders of the strike zone.

So, batters don’t know what’s coming; they struggle to keep up with the pitches that they face; and they are further disadvantaged by his locational tendencies.

Skubal vs. Guardians Batters

In Cleveland or in Detroit, Guardians batters struggle to touch Skubal. Before Skubal entered his current strong form, he allowed one run to them in seven innings in Cleveland in July.

In 82 combined at-bats, they have managed zero home runs off him. Their collective .317 slugging rate against him is paltry. 

Jose Ramirez is no match for him, either, as he failed to get a hit off Skubal on October 7.

Cleveland’s Starter

Cleveland starts Matt Boyd today. Tigers batters haven’t collected as many at-bats against him because Boyd was a former teammate of theirs.

Boyd did face the Tigers once already in this series. This game took place on October 7. Boyd lasted 4.2 innings. Detroit managed four hits and two walks but failed to score a run off him.

Rematch Scenario

Both lineups have recently seen the opposing starting pitcher. Skubal has already proven himself in situations where he faces the same lineup in consecutive starts. In August, he held the Mariners to two runs in seven innings before, in the next start, doing even better and holding them to one run in six innings.

Boyd, while the recent sample size is small, hasn’t shown this same promise in rematch situations. He performed worse in his rematch with the Royals last year than he did in his first meeting against them.

Boyd has not exhibited close to the same level of dominance as Skubal, so it is unreasonable to expect Boyd to be as good in an immediate rematch situation.

Bullpens

Boyd will not last close to as many innings as Skubal, with the latter able to go seven innings and the former maybe four or five. This disparity gives Detroit a bullpen advantage to complement its starting pitcher advantage.

Cleveland will have to rely on less reliable relievers, such as Tim Herrin, whom Cleveland has utilized in every game in this series despite his tendency to concede hits and walks. Detroit’s familiarity with Cleveland’s relievers, including Herrin, will further help its cause.

For the Tigers, guys like Will Vest and Beau Brieske have been solid throughout the postseason. Between them, they’ve pitched a combined total of 11.1 innings in this postseason and have allowed one run. Vest has allowed zero hits; Brieske has made one mistake.

Whereas Cleveland’s bullpen will be strained and will allow Tigers batters to collect walks, hits, and ultimately runs, Detroit will lean on its best guys to finish the job that Skubal starts.

MLB Pick: Tigers ML (-114) at BetOnline

MLB Pick: Tigers Team With Most Hits (-137) at BetOnline

Tigers Team With Most Hits (-137)

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