Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for Game 6 between the Thunder and Mavericks. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Thunder.
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NBA Pick: Thunder +3.5 (-112) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Dallas Mavericks
Saturday, May 18, 2024 – 08:00 PM ET at American Airlines Center
Game 5 Thoughts
Dallas’ Game 5 win on the Thunder’s home floor has people gaining confidence in the Mavericks’ outlook for Game 6 in Dallas. However, this is the wrong way to think about things.
It is not the case that Dallas’ road win showed that it is a better team than the Thunder, such that we should expect the Mavs to win at home because they won in Oklahoma City. Rather, it is the case that the Thunder underperformed in Game 5 despite the fact that they played at home.
They missed many wide-open and a ton of open threes. To be exact, they missed 12 wide-open threes and 17 open ones. They underperformed tremendously in terms of open and wide-open three-point conversion rates.
The Thunder, though, own the second-best three-point conversion rate on the season. They shoot threes nearly as well on the road as they do at home.
We should expect them to bounce back. Their success shooting threes on the road is a tremendous point because oddsmakers are dogging the Thunder as if playing on the road puts them at a real disadvantage.
OKC’s Defense
Another reason why I like the underdog tonight is the Thunder’s defense. OKC has the Mavs’ offense figured out, and, again, it doesn’t matter to the Thunder whether they are playing on their home floor or on Dallas’.
In Games 3 and 4, both of which took place in Dallas, the Thunder held the Mavericks to 105 and 96 points, respectively. The Mavs scored 105 when P.J. Washington was their leading scorer, but the Thunder have been able to hold him in check since that game, which was Game 3.
OKC is unique for having quality individual defenders who can, more importantly, contain Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving. Luguentz Dort and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander both deserved their All-NBA Defensive Team votes.
Takeaway
Expect the Thunder to bounce back shooting-wise and to continue to play excellent defense. Playing in Dallas does not bother them, and yet they are underdogs.
I get why oddsmakers are dogging them – this is just what they do for every home and road team. Let’s be grateful for the opportunity here.
NBA Pick: Thunder +3.5 (-112) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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