From morning through evening, Saturday is a great day for college football. We get to choose our favorite college football bets from a large number of games. Teams at this point of the season are focused on trying to achieve bowl eligibility, to make their conference championship game, or to make the playoffs.
For our Saturday night football bets, I want to choose an exciting and highly anticipated game for which the odds feel way off for matchup-related reasons: Duke vs. North Carolina.
Remember that your Saturday’s best NCAAF bets can also target other games, so check out the oddsboard to see what intrigues you.
Best Bets for Duke Blue Devils vs. North Carolina Tar Heels
This is an important game for postseason-related reasons. If the Blue Devils win, then they will become bowl-eligible. If the Tar Heels win, then they will be able to become bowl-eligible with a victory in their subsequent game. But perhaps the best reason of all to watch this game is that it is a rivalry game. School rivalries are a big part of what makes college football special. Located very close to each other, Duke and UNC is a historic, classic rivalry that dates back many decades. They play for the Victory Bell.
For your college football betting picks, you should expect a game that will be decided by whether the biggest name on the field, Duke quarterback Darian Mensah, is able to take over the game. He’ll look to avoid repeating the struggles that he’s suffered in some recent games. But, even if he is experiencing his best form, his task might be too big given the extensive vulnerability that has been plaguing Duke’s defense.
Nevertheless, Duke is favored strongly on the road. Let’s break down these odds.
Saturday Odds (North Carolina +7)
North Carolina is currently a seven-point underdog. This spread has seen minimal movement since Duke opened as a 6.5-point favorite. Nevertheless, there are many injuries to consider that could be impactful. Duke’s linebacking corps is beleaguered. The Blue Devils’ secondary might also be similarly thinned.
That being said, North Carolina star cornerback Thaddeus Dixon might not be able to suit up. The Tar Heels’ offensive line is, moreover, banged-up. I don’t foresee either team having much of an edge health-wise, so I don’t anticipate much line movement at the odds boards.
Saturday Picks (North Carolina +7)
Duke is wrongly favored in this game. If you do a side-by-side comparison of Duke’s quarterback and North Carolina’s quarterback, Gio Lopez, then the spread seems to make sense. But Mensah can’t do everything by himself. He depends on his team’s ground game succeeding. The Blue Devils have failed to reach 20 points in the two games in which starting running back Nate Sheppard has failed to reach four YPC. Defenses are employing different strategies to hurt Mensah, one of which is to focus on stopping Duke’s rush attack, so that Mensah faces more difficult passing situations. North Carolina’s run defense ranks 22nd and has been particularly solid at home. So, the Tar Heels will be able to limit Duke’s ground game and render Duke’s offense perilously one-dimensional.
Conversely, the Tar Heels will field a balanced offensive attack. Lopez has proven superbly capable against weak pass defenses, as evident in his 209.2 passer rating in his team’s 27-10 win over Syracuse. Ranking third-to-last in pass defense, the Blue Devils will pose the softest test that he’s seen. He will also enjoy support from a rush attack that will exploit a Duke run defense that has been free-falling for an extensive period of time. The Blue Devils are allowing 185 rushing yards in their last three games.
For the above reasons, I recommend North Carolina +7. Don’t miss out, though, on other games that are available to bet on.
Duke’s Nate Sheppard (Under 64.5 Rushing Yards)
Expect a prideful response from the Tar Heels’ run defense after they underperformed last week. Their individual defenders were out-played, failing to demonstrate the skills and abilities that they had demonstrated throughout the season. Especially with this being a home game and with the success that Duke’s last opponent derived from its focus on Duke’s ground attack, we have every reason to expect a strong bounce-back performance from what is one of the highest-ranked run defenses. Therefore, for my player props for this game, I wish to target the Blue Devils’ ground game. Nate Sheppard will fail to reach 50 rushing yards for a second straight week.
As further support for this player prop, recall how bad Duke’s defense is. The Tar Heels’ offense will be able to control time of possession, which is important because opposing offensive players can’t accumulate yards while they’re on the sidelines. Moreover, the Tar Heels’ offense will push Duke to have to score more and to have to score late, which will motivate the Blue Devils to focus on passing more to the exclusion of running the ball.
In addition to betting on a poor performance from Sheppard, be sure to check out other player props for other games that might interest you.
Make Your Football Bets Now
We can’t wait for this good old-fashioned rivalry between Duke and North Carolina. For your Saturday college football bets, be sure to expect a strong North Carolina win that will involve a strong performance from its run defense.
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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
