We have a huge 16-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Wednesday. And we have a play that we feel holds great betting value at top-rated sportsbooks.
This play is based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Wednesday comes in the Twin Cities, where our model likes a total when the Royals visit the Twins.
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MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Kansas City Royals vs. Minnesota Twins
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 – 07:40 PM ET at Target Field
Based on the MLB odds, we are expecting a relatively high-scoring affair and are thus backing the Over when the overachieving Seth Lugo and the Royals visit Bailey Ober and the Twins on Wednesday.
Not Buying the ERA
Lugo officially leads the Major Leagues with his 1.74 ERA (Shota Imanaga is three innings short of qualifying), but we are simply not buying it. We are always dubious of pitchers seemingly having breakout seasons at 34 years old, and the xFIP is indeed much higher at 3.78. There are also enough red flags to signal pending regression.
Seth has benefited from a .245 BABIP allowed and 89.6% strand rate. Yes, he is usually around the plate with a fine walk rate of 1.87/9, but he is not a guy with plus-stuff and his velocity of 92.6 MPH is his lowest since 2017. He has thus far pitched around a sub-par soft/hard contact ratio of 16.5% / 32.5%, and his luck figures to run out once the BABIP normalizes.
Just as Mediocre
As for Ober, he is 5-2 through 10 starts but with a 4.33 ERA and 3.92 xFIP. That xFIP is basically at the same mediocre level as Lugo. Bailey flashed a bit last season with a 3.43 ERA, but that was accompanied by a 4.20 xFIP that is more in line with his 4.11 career mark.
He also has a very low 28.1% groundball rate this season, meaning the contact he has allowed has been predominantly in the air. That brings the high 33.1% hard-contact rate into play, especially against a Kansas City offense ranked ninth in the league in slugging percentage at .406. And Ober has indeed been a bit home run prone as of late, allowing a dinger in four of his last five starts.
So, with Lugo being not nearly as good as his league-leading ERA and Ober being home run prone facing a good offense, go Over in Minnesota.
Predicted Score: Twins 6 – Royals 4
MLB Pick: Over 7.5 (-105) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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