We have a huge 16-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Wednesday. As usual, we have a best bet for today’s slate that we feel holds great betting value at top-rated sportsbooks.
This best bet is based mostly on our proprietary model. Our model points to a total in the Emerald City of Seattle on Wednesday with the Astros visiting the Mariners.
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MLB Pick: Under 7 (-105) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Houston Astros vs. Seattle Mariners
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 – 07:40 PM ET at T-Mobile Park
According to our MLB odds, we expect runs to be at a premium in Seattle on Wednesday, so we are backing the Under when George Kirby and the Mariners host Justin Verlander and the Astros.
Better Than the ERA
We have been fans of Kirby since he entered the majors in 2022, and why wouldn’t we, considering he has an equal 3.52 ERA and 3.52 xFIP through 383 Major League innings. Those numbers being equal suggest a long-term ERA projection in that good area. Thus, we expect positive regression with his ERA currently at 4.33 this season, especially given his 3.59 xFIP.
George has a good strikeout rate of 8.23/9, but the key to his success is he simply does not walk people. His walk rate is currently at 0.87/9 after he posted a stellar 0.90/9 rate over 190.2 innings last season. Furthermore, he has combined his sparkling K/BB ratio with a low 24.5% hard-contact rate. Add in having that great control while averaging 95.8 MPH on his fastball and we foresee a steady decline in the ERA very soon.
Was Last Start Real?
We were extremely down on Verlander prior to his last start. The 41-year-old is on the downside of a Hall of Fame career, and while he is 3-2 with a good 3.60 ERA, his xFIP is an uglier 4.80 and he has a weak K/BB ratio of 7.88/3.15 per nine innings. However, he suddenly looked like vintage Verlander on Friday against an improved Oakland offense, allowing one earned run in six innings with nine strikeouts and no walks.
So, did Justin discover the Fountain of Youth, or was that outing a one-off? The jury is still out on that one, but his average velocity this season is still good at 94.3 MPH. The issue before Friday was a low swinging-strike rate despite the velocity, but that rate was a much better 13.7% in that outing, raising the figure to 9.7% for the season.
He now benefits from facing a Seattle offense that has struck out at the highest rate in baseball this year at 27.9%.
Given our expected excellence from Kirby, we think Verlander showed enough in his last outing to indicate he can do his part here also in keeping this game Under the total.
Predicted Score: Mariners 3 – Astros 2
MLB Pick: Under 7 (-105) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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