We have a huge 16-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups for Wednesday. We are here with a play that we feel has the most betting value at top-rated sportsbooks.
This bet is based mostly on our proprietary model, which favors a side in the Cubs vs. Brewers matchup on Wednesday night.
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MLB Pick: Cubs ML (-128) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Chicago Cubs vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Wednesday, May 29, 2024 – 07:40 PM ET at American Family Field
We see a bigger pitching mismatch than what these current MLB odds imply, so we are betting on southpaw Shota Imanaga and the Cubs as moderate road favorites against Bryse Wilson and the Brewers.
Welcome to America
The Japanese import Imanaga is loving life in America so far while baffling Major League batters. He is 5-0 through nine starts while leading the majors among pitchers with at least 50 innings pitched and a spectacular ERA of 0.84! He has allowed a total of seven runs (five earned) all season while not yet allowing more than two earned runs in any start.
Yes, that ERA is unsustainable, but Shota still has a very good 3.12 xFIP and solid peripherals. He has combined an excellent K/BB ratio of 9.72/1.51 per nine innings with a very good soft/hard contact ratio of 14.8% / 21.1%. He is not a very hard thrower with a 92.4 MPH fastball, but he has a nice separation to his lethal 83.6 MPH splitter with that combo producing a 16.0% swinging-strike rate.
The southpaw is facing a Milwaukee offense with a below-average wRC+ of 92 against left-handers, compared to a hefty 119 against right-handers.
Regression in the Forecast
Wilson has been used in several roles this season from starter to reliever to bulk pitcher following an opener. We are not believers in his 2.86 ERA through 44 innings. His xFIP is considerably higher at 4.39, and as usual, his underlying metrics more closely support the xFIP than the deceptive ERA.
Bryse has benefited greatly in the Luck department with a low .235 BABIP allowed and an unfathomable 90.3% strand rate. He has a weak K/BB ratio of 7.77/3.48 per nine innings, and we do not foresee improvement there given only a 9.1% swinging-strike rate. Moreover, his soft/hard contact ratio is also lacking at 16.4% / 36.1%.
We think that Wilson is getting too much respect for his ERA at these odds, so we are backing the much better pitcher in our eyes in Imanaga at a reasonable price.
Predicted Score: Cubs 6 – Brewers 3
MLB Pick: Cubs ML (-128) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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