Royals vs. Guardians MLB Best Bet: Bats Prevail in AL Central Clash

After being swept by the Kansas City Royals in Monday’s doubleheader, the Cleveland Guardians have seen their lead in the AL Central Division shrink to just a game during a recent 3-8 slide.

Oddsmakers at BetOnline still like Cleveland’s chances of bouncing right back into the win column on Tuesday. The Guardians are priced around -140 with Gavin Williams (2-6, 5.13) on the hill, and the Royals will counter with Michael Lorenzen (7-6, 3.47) in a contest that is carrying 8½-9 for the scoreboard target.

KC Up 6-2 in Season Series Following Sweep

The doubleheader was made necessary by a rainout in Cleveland back in June, and the Royals took the opener by a 4-3 count as -130 chalk on the MLB odds. Bobby Witt Jr’s solo homer in the 8th broke the deadlock and the final just stayed ‘under’ the 8-run total.

Both managers turned to Triple-A call-ups for the second game of the twinbill, and after falling behind 3-0 in the 1st, Kansas City stormed back for a 9-4 triumph as a small underdog. Salvador Perez homered twice, slapping a solo homer in the 5th that broke a 4-all tie and crushing a grand slam in the 6th that put the game away.

Kansas City leads the season series 6-2 and has won 3 of the 4 played in Cleveland. Totals split Monday and have done the same at 4-4 O/U on the year. The Guardians have generally done well at home by winning 12 of the last 18 games played at Progressive Field, with totals of 3-6 O/U for the last 9 games on the diamond.

‘Under’ Bettors Happy With Williams

Michael Lorenzen has done well since coming over from Texas in a deadline deal, pitching to a 1.99 ERA in nearly 23 frames across 4 starts. The Royals have only managed to split those 4 efforts, with the two wins coming in Lorenzen’s last 2 assignments.

He tossed 7 shutout innings last Wednesday at home against a weak Angels lineup, striking out 5 and only allowing 4 hits in a 3-0 KC victory as -200 chalk on the MLB betting board. That was preceded by a 7-1 win in Cincinnati where Lorenzen worked into the sixth inning.

He also recorded 7 shutout innings against the Guardians earlier this season when Lorenzen still wore a Rangers jersey, but failed to get any support in a 2-0 Texas loss. Jose Ramirez is 3-9 lifetime against Lorenzen, with a homer from 4 walks.

Gavin Williams hasn’t been making Cleveland fans happy with the club just winning 3 of his starts against 9 defeats. But he has been making friends with ‘under’ bettors over the last couple of months with 6 of his last 8 assignments coming up short of the totals.

None of the 3 wins took place in front of the Progressive Field fans. All 4 of his starts at home have gone into the loss column, and Williams sports a bloated 8.66 ERA in Cleveland where opposing lineups are batting a gaudy .351 against him.

A 1st-round pick in 2021 out of East Carolina, Williams did enjoy some success when he faced the Royals last year. The Guardians won both of those assignments while Williams combined to hurl 12.2 innings with 13 strikeouts and only 3 runs scoring.

Umpire Notes & Mother Nature

Doubleheaders can lead to umpire rotations getting a bit squirrely, but the expectations are we’ll see Jonathan Parra calling balls and strikes on Tuesday. Parra made his MLB debut earlier this season, and has leaned to the ‘under’ at 7-10 O/U in his plate assignments.

Clear skies and a humid 89° is the forecast for the Rock n’ Roll Capital Of The World this evening when the contest begins. The weatherman is also suggesting a 10 mph blow from the Southwest (out to center).

The Pick

Real quick: Who’s got the 2nd-best run differential in the American League behind the New York Yankees? Give yourself a gold star if you knew Kansas City was the answer.

The Royals hold that distinction despite dropping a couple of lopsided losses at home to the Phillies last weekend, and they are getting the job done by scoring the 5th-most runs per game in the AL (4.87) while allowing the 4th-fewest (4.10).

Kansas City’s current form, especially the momentum gained from beginning this series with a doubleheader sweep, points to the Royals as the best play tonight, but instead, I’ll go a bit contrary to season trends with a free MLB pick on the ‘Over.’

MLB Pick: Over 8.5 (-125) at BetOnline

Over 8.5 (-125)

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