Rockies vs. Diamondbacks MLB Best Bet: Tasty Snakes for Chalkeaters

Where’s the Value?

There’s only so much meat left on this carcass. We’re nearly 120 games into the 2024 Major League Baseball regular season, with the trade deadline come and gone and not too many surprises left in store for the MLB betting market. Where’s our profit margin coming from?

Maybe the sharps can point us the way again. Early line movement suggests they’ve pounced on the Arizona Diamondbacks (66-53, plus-9.79 betting units at press time) as chunky favorites for Tuesday’s National League West matchup with the Colorado Rockies (44-75, minus-6.34 units).

The Snakes are still fresh out of the gate as -230 faves at Heritage Sports as I write this. If you can get Arizona at those MLB odds or longer, you just might have a bargain on your hands. Let’s investigate.

What’s Wrong With the Rockies?

Pretty much everything from the top down. Colorado ranks No. 24 in the majors in hitting value according to the FanGraphs WAR charts, and No. 23 in pitching – although the Rockies bullpen does check in at No. 13 overall.

The Montfort Brothers (Dick and Charlie) don’t seem to be in any hurry to fix this mess. Since they took primary ownership of the team in 2005, the Rockies have made the playoffs four times, the last in 2018. Every year it’s the same story: We’ll get better. Then they don’t.

Consider this year’s trade deadline, for example. With almost literally zero chance of reaching the postseason (less than 0.1% according to Baseball Reference), Colorado could have swapped multiple veterans for young prospects.

Okay, two is technically a multiple, but relievers Nick Means (to Milwaukee) and Jalen Beeks (to Pittsburgh) didn’t exactly restock the farm system with their returns. The beatings will continue until morale improves.

Who’s Pitching for Colorado?

It’s one of the guys they were “supposed” to trade. Austin Gomber (4.43 xFIP) has enjoyed something of a rebound this year after a career-worst 2023; the Rockies are actually up 0.87 betting units in his 22 starts despite going 9-13 (Under 12-10).

Word on the street is that Colorado prefers the idea of extending Gomber’s contract on the cheap, which they’ve done in the past with the likes of Kyle Freeland and Antonio Senzatela.

In the meantime, Gomber is coming off one of the worst starts of his 2024 campaign, a 9-1 loss to the New York Mets (-143 away) on August 8 where he coughed up five runs in three innings of work. Current Arizona hitters have a combined .864 OPS off the 30-year-old lefty, so yes, more misery is on the way for Rockies fans.

Who’s Pitching for the Diamondbacks?

It’ll be Eduardo Rodriguez (4.06 xFIP for Detroit last year) making his second start for Arizona after his debut was delayed by a strained left shoulder – his throwing shoulder. Rodriguez signed a tasty four-year, $80-million deal with the Snakes last December after taking an early opt-out to escape the Tigers organization.

The sharps must really hate Colorado if they’re willing to back Rodriguez. It usually takes a couple of starts or more for a pitcher to shake off a lengthy stay on the injured list; in his 2024 debut, the 31-year-old Venezuelan allowed three runs over 5.2 innings in a 5-3 win over the Cleveland Guardians (-105 at home), posting a 5.75 xFIP in the process.

Don’t count on Arizona’s bullpen to keep it scoreless again. The Snakes rank No. 23 overall in bullpen WAR, although they did add a veteran arm in Dylan Floro (3.81 xFIP) at the deadline via the Washington Nationals. Also new in Phoenix: former All-Star infielder Josh Bell (.727 OPS), who homered from both sides of the plate on August 2 in his first game after arriving from the Miami Marlins.

It’s supposed to reach 100 degrees in Phoenix this Tuesday, so the roof at Chase Field will presumably be closed – although details for this series have yet to be released at press time. With Mother Nature out of the way, can anything slow Arizona down in this matchup? Bet accordingly, and may the sphere be with you.

MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-230) at Heritage Sports 

Diamondbacks ML (-230)

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*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.