All 30 MLB teams are in action Wednesday across the 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups, including seven afternoon games. As usual, we have a bet to place at top-rated sportsbooks for today’s slate.
These best bets are based mostly on our proprietary model and MLB odds. Our model points to a total in Beantown Wednesday night with the Rays visiting the Red Sox.
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MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-125) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Sox
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 – 07:10 PM ET at Fenway Park
We are looking for a pitchers’ duel on Wednesday when Tanner Houck and the Red Sox host Taj Bradley and the Rays. Therefore, we are supporting the Under in Boston.
Cy Young Contender?
Houck is pitching like a Cy Young candidate so far for Boston despite his very misleading 3-4 record. He is tied for first in the Major Leagues in pitching WAR at 1.8 while also ranking an identical ninth in ERA at 2.24 and xFIP at 2.80. His losing record can be directly attributed to a lack of run support, which is even more conducive to an Under here.
Tanner has a very good K/BB ratio of 8.60/1.38 per nine innings, and he has combined that with an excellent groundball rate of 55.9%. That latter rate is generated by his heavy 93.8 MPH sinker, which has also helped the strikeout rate when combined with his effective slider and splitter.
He is facing a Tampa Bay offense with a below-average wRC+ of 95 against right-handers on the road.
Nice Season Debut
We backed Bradley in his season debut against the Yankees last Friday after he was so impressive during his rehab assignments. He was an unlucky 2-0 loser. However, he certainly looked sharp allowing just one run on four hits with seven strikeouts over six innings. He averaged a blazing 97.3 MPH on his fastball. He is also averaging just over 91 MPH on both his cutter and splitter.
So, the arm strength is certainly there coming from his elbow injury. He seems ready to take the next step in his second season. Also remember that Taj was better than his 5-8 record and 5.59 ERA as a rookie last season, as his xFIP was almost two runs lower at 3.83 and he had an excellent strikeout rate of 11.09/9.
He is now facing a Boston offense with a dismal wRC+ of 82 against righties here at home.
The Pick
So bet the Under in this matchup of two pitchers with excellent potential and two offenses with below-average splits.
Predicted Score: Red Sox 4 – Rays 2
MLB Pick: Under 8.5 (-125) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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