All 30 MLB teams are in action Wednesday across the 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups, including seven afternoon games. And we have a play that, according to our MLB odds, we feel holds great betting value at top-rated sportsbooks.
These plays are based mostly on our proprietary model. One of the best bets for Wednesday comes in the late afternoon in San Diego, where our model likes the total when the Rockies visit the Padres.
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MLB Pick: Under 7 (+105) at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)
Colorado Rockies vs. San Diego Padres
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 – 04:10 PM ET at Petco Park
Neither Michael King of the Padres nor Austin Gomber of the Rockies are considered household names. However, both have pitched sneakily well this young season, so we are backing the Under at Petco Park.
Off Best Effort Yet
King comes in at 3-3, but he sports a 3.67 ERA that is legitimized by his 3.89 xFIP. Moreover, he is getting better with every start. He comes off his best outing of the season, tossing seven scoreless innings against a tough Dodgers lineup with 11 strikeouts while allowing only two hits. That gives King 13 scoreless innings over his last two starts.
After averaging double-digit strikeouts while with the Yankees the last two years, Michael is basically there again with the Padres this year at 9.92/9. He also has an above-average soft/hard contact ratio of 17.3% / 28.6%, and it does not hurt to be pitching in a pitcher-friendly stadium like Petco.
It also helps that the Rockies rank only 19th in wRC+ against righties at 88 despite playing their home games in Colorado.
Nice for the Colorado Pitcher
Gomber comes in at 0-2, but his 3.43 ERA is practically unheard of for a pitcher who pitches his home games at Coors Field. And though he has not needed the help thus far, he should still appreciate going from pitching in altitude to pitching in this spacious stadium that favors pitchers.
Gomber is not a hard thrower at all, but he has a nice array of four pitches that he has thrown at least 18% of the time. That wide arsenal has helped generate a good 45.0% groundball rate, and while that is vital for success at Coors, it is also a nice trait for any stadium. Austin has allowed three runs or less in six of his eight starts, and he allowed exactly four runs on the other two occasions.
He is facing a San Diego offense ranked 24th in wRC+ against lefties at 87, a figure that drops to 80 at home in Petco Park.
The Pick
We see this as a matchup between two underrated starters and two offenses that are at their worst offensive splits. That sounds like a great recipe for a Petco Under.
Predicted Score: Padres 3 – Rockies 2
MLB Pick: Under 7 (+105) at Bovada
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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