All 30 MLB teams are in action Wednesday across the 15-game slate of Major League Baseball betting matchups, including seven afternoon games. We are here with a play we feel has the most betting value at the current MLB odds.
These value-bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which favors one side in the Reds vs. Diamondbacks matchup this afternoon.
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MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-140) at Heritage Sports (visit our Heritage Sports Review)
Cincinnati Reds vs. Arizona Diamondbacks
Wednesday, May 15, 2024 – 03:40 PM ET at Chase Field
We feel this is a matchup between two pitchers with deceptive ERAs for opposite reasons. Thus, we are betting at top-rated sportsbooks on positive regression for Brandon Pfaadt of the Diamondbacks against the overachieving Andrew Abbott and the Reds.
Peripherals Still Strong
We expected Pfaadt to build on the success he had over the last two months of last year when he may have been Arizona’s best starter. However, he has opened 2024 at 1-3 with a 4.60 ERA. The news is not all bad for Brandon however. His xFIP is nearly a full run lower at 3.66 and he still has strong peripherals.
His strong K/BB ratio is better than his rookie season last year. He has a good strikeout rate of 8.04/9 while lowering his walk rate to 1.53/9 from 2.44 last season. Furthermore, he has lowered his hard-contact rate by more than 10%, to 28.1% from 38.6%. His undoing has been an unlucky 60.8% strand rate. It is even more unlucky when considering the good strikeout rate. We expect convergence toward the good xFIP as the strand rate normalizes.
Also, the Reds were expected to have an exciting offense this season. Instead, they rank 27th in wRC+ against right-handers at just 84.
Snakes Crushing Lefties
The southpaw Abbott has been on the opposite side of the Luck scale. He enters with a very good 3.35 ERA. However, that loses its luster considering it is accompanied by a much higher 4.51 xFIP. Abbott has a poor K/BB ratio of 7.74/2.51 per nine innings. He also has a low groundball rate of 31.0%, making him a contact pitcher with most of the contact in the air.
He has escaped mostly unscathed due to extreme luck, with a low BABIP allowed of .259 and a ridiculous strand rate of 85.8%. That luck cannot be expected to continue, especially with the low strikeout rate validated by a huge dip in Andrew’s swinging-strike rate to 8.0% from 10.9% last year.
Finally, let’s not forget that the Diamondbacks lead all of baseball in wRC+ against left-handers at a robust 142.
The Pick
So, with Arizona owning the better batting split by a huge margin and Pfaadt having the better peripherals, back the favored Diamondbacks on Wednesday.
Predicted Score: Diamondbacks 5 – Reds 3
MLB Pick: Diamondbacks ML (-140) at Heritage Sports
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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