Few NFL teams needed a coaching change more than the Chicago Bears, and this was evident going into the 2024 season when they decided to keep Matt Eberflus instead of ushering in the Caleb Williams era with a fresh offensive mind who could unleash him.
The results were disastrous as the Bears turned a 4-2 start into a 5-12 finish and Eberflus was fired after some of the worst clock management in NFL history in Detroit on Thanksgiving. It was all downhill after the Hail Mary loss against Washington, and the offense didn’t understand how to protect Williams, who took 68 sacks.
But the good news is the Bears hired Ben Johnson, the much-hyped offensive coordinator from the Lions who helped that team turn into an elite, consistent offense and ultimately a 15-win team last season.
Johnson is only 39 years old, but the Bears’ history of struggling to field a good passing game goes back about 75 years at this point. Ever since Sid Luckman retired in 1951. We’ll see if Johnson can turn it around in a tough division, but the Bears are legitimately one of the most intriguing teams in the NFL this year.
Let’s break down our favorite props and team outcomes for the Bears from top sportsbooks to help with your 2025 NFL picks.
NFC North Division Winner Odds
Caleb Williams
- Over/Under 23.5 Passing Touchdowns
Caleb Williams certainly had one of the wildest rookie quarterback seasons from a statistical perspective. Despite the pressure he was under that led to 68 sacks, he still threw 20 touchdowns to 6 interceptions, a solid ratio for a rookie, let alone one on a team that was often playing from behind with a quarterback under duress.
In fact, the Bears went 9 straight games where they lost despite not throwing any interceptions, which nearly doubled the modern NFL record of 5 games. That’s a weird streak.
Williams’ main goal this year should be to cut those sacks down as they are a quarterback stat 1st and an offensive line stat 2nd. Fortunately, the new coaching that includes teaching him how to study film properly should help there, general 2nd-year improvement should help, and the Bears also upgraded the line with veteran starters, including left guard Joe Thuney from the Chiefs.
We know Williams has weapons around him, and the team even drafted tight end Colston Loveland (Michigan) with the No. 10 pick. Rome Odunze could certainly get better in Year 2, and D.J. Moore is a reliable WR1.
Caleb’s Cooking
But this line is such a tempting over after Williams already threw 20 touchdowns in a dire situation last year. You give him a coach like Johnson and his creative offensive design and you think that can lead to 4 more touchdowns? Seems like a pretty wise pick to me.
Johnson reportedly has said 70% completions is a goal for Williams, so look for a lot of quicker passes to negate that pressure. But one thing the Bears lack that the Lions had for Johnson’s offense, besides a great offensive line, is the running backs that can score a ton of touchdowns like Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery. It’s easier to call runs at the goal line with those guys behind that line.
In Chicago, expect to see Johnson take advantage of Williams’ mobility more on rollouts and bootlegs. The Bears’ leading rusher could be D’Andre Swift, who played in Johnson’s Detroit offense in 2022 when he scored 5 rushing touchdowns as the No. 2 back.
But in Chicago, it’s going to be the Williams show, so he should go over 23.5 passing touchdowns, and his over in passing yards (3600.5) is also worth a look.
D.J. Moore
- Over/Under 975.5 Receiving Yards
With a young quarterback and rookie head coach, there are legitimate questions about how the new passing game will look in Chicago this year. Does Ben Johnson turn D.J. Moore into his Amon-Ra St. Brown and utilize him on screens and a lot of short, quick throws to help Williams get to that 70% completion mark?
Go figure, but Moore caught exactly 70% of his targets in Chicago last year.
On the other hand, it could be Rome Odunze who makes the big leap forward in his Year 2 with Williams and he’ll emerge as the new leading receiver instead. That’s always a possibility too, and let’s not forget the tight end duo of Cole Kmet and rookie Colston Loveland.
But the fact is Moore is a highly-paid wideout who is only 28 years old, so he’s still in his prime. The team lost Keenan Allen, so there goes 70 catches (16 more than Odunze but 28 fewer than Moore) that’ll need replaced.
Moore is durable and hasn’t missed any games since 2020. He had 966 yards last year, but he had 1,364 yards the year before with lesser quarterback play and worse coaching. Let’s trust him to remain the WR1 for at least another year and put up a 1,000-yard season as Johnson will get him open in more productive ways than the Bears did last year.
2025 Bears Regular Season Wins – Over/Under 8.5 Wins
The 2025 Bears have a win total of 8.5 wins at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review) with the following odds:
- Over 8.5 wins (-105)
- Under 8.5 wins (-125)
Even with a 5-12 record last year, the Bears were more competitive than their record suggested. The problem with Chicago every year during the Matt Eberflus era was the inability to win close games. Eberflus was 3-22 (.120) in games where his team trailed by one score in the 4th quarter and had possession of the ball on offense. That’s as bad as any record in NFL history for a coach with at least 25 such games.
The 39-year-old Johnson has a chance to do what Sean McVay did when he took over the Rams in 2017 after Jared Goff, another No. 1 overall pick, had one of the worst rookie seasons ever. Williams wasn’t great last year, but he was miles better than what Goff looked like in 2016. Yet, McVay got him some weapons and fixed the offense to help that team make the playoffs immediately.
Since the NFC North was so historic last year with teams that won 15, 14, and 11 games, it might be asking too much for the Bears to make the playoffs in Year 1 of Johnson’s tenure.
But can he get this team to 9-8 and possibly leapfrog one of those teams? Let’s look at the schedule:
- Week 1 on Monday Night Football is an ideal time to host the Vikings in what should be J.J. McCarthy’s 1st NFL start (Advantage: Chicago).
- The Bears get to play a last-place schedule, meaning they’ll face the Raiders, Saints, and are in San Francisco in Week 17 – they could easily go at least 2-1 in those games.
- Could Johnson stick it to the Cowboys in Week 3 after he ran a bunch of trick plays in a blowout win against them in Dallas last year? Quite possible.
- Road games in the same month against the Commanders, Ravens, and Bengals will no doubt be tough, but they’ll find a way to win at least one of those games if they’re legit this year.
- Home games with the Giants (Week 10) and Browns (Week 15) are 2 of the most winnable games on the schedule.
- Black Friday in Philadelphia could be the toughest game of the season for the Bears in Week 13, but they could always beat the Steelers at home a week before that to send Old Aaron Rodgers off with a loss to Chicago.
- The Bears finally beat the Packers in Week 18 after nearly getting them the 1st match as well, so they’ll need to try to get at least a split instead of years of getting swept by Green Bay.
- Can Johnson conjure up some magic in Week 18 at home against Detroit, his former team? Maybe.
It’s not an easy schedule, but if you believed in Williams as a legitimate No. 1 pick, if you believe Johnson is the next McVay, and if you aren’t that sold on Minnesota maintaining its playoff position with McCarthy, then this team absolutely could finish 9-8 or better this year.
The odds slightly lean to the under, but let’s go with the value on the over in what could finally be a big turnaround for Chicago and getting that passing game on the right track.
2025 Bears – Do They Make the Playoffs?
So far, we’ve observed that the Packers look like a steady team capable of winning double-digit games again. Even if the Lions miss their coordinators, they still have enough talent and are getting healthy on defense (Aidan Hutchinson is the key) to where they should win 10-plus games again.
But there is a real opportunity for Chicago to overcome Minnesota, possibly thanks to a head-to-head sweep, and finish in 3rd place in the NFC North with a 9-8 record.
Is that good enough for the playoffs? We already saw last year how 10-7 wasn’t good enough for Seattle, and the NFC is starting to get more competitive and deep.
We like Washington and Philadelphia to both represent the NFC East again, so with Packers-Lions, that leaves just 1 wild card spot for the rest of the conference. The NFC West has such an easier schedule (plays both South divisions) that it could get multiple teams too.
So, consider it a hedge on the over 8.5 wins for Chicago, but we are going to bet that the Bears do not qualify for the postseason in 2025. But it should be a year that gets them on the right track, and they’ll be a trendy pick for 2026.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
