Pittsburgh vs. SMU College Football Week 10 Picks: Can the Panthers Cover?

Pittsburgh Destroyed Syracuse

Pittsburgh dominated Syracuse 41-13 on Thursday, marking the Panthers’ first 7-0 start since 1982. The defense was relentless from the outset, pressuring Syracuse quarterback Kyle McCord and forcing him into three interceptions on the Orange’s opening drives.

Rasheem Biles and Kyle Louis capitalized with pick-sixes, while linebacker Brandon George made an acrobatic interception, snatching a deflected pass just before it hit the turf.

The Panthers’ defensive show wasn’t over. Braylan Lovelace added a third pick-six, making Pitt the first team since USC in 2022 to record three defensive touchdowns in a single game.

Pitt’s smothering defense overshadowed its offense, which saw limited action as Eli Holstein threw for 108 yards and two touchdowns. He was pulled in the fourth quarter as a precaution after taking a hit on a designed run.

Though Syracuse led in time of possession (41:12 to 18:48) and outgained Pitt in total yardage (327 to 223), McCord’s five interceptions proved costly. The Orange struggled to stop Pitt’s defenders from returning interceptions to the end zone.

On the offensive side, Pittsburgh’s first-year coordinator Kade Bell continued deploying an uptempo attack, a shift that helped them win their initial five games. Head coach Pat Narduzzi’s defense, a hallmark of his 10-year tenure, was back in full force. However, significant challenges remain as the Panthers aim for a return to the ACC title game.

SMU Survived at Duke

SMU narrowly escaped with a 28-27 overtime victory over Duke on Saturday. The Mustangs thwarted a two-point conversion attempt in overtime to secure their fifth straight win. Brashard Smith led SMU’s ground game with 117 rushing yards and two touchdowns, including the overtime game-winner.

Quarterback Kevin Jennings added 299 total yards, with both a rushing and passing touchdown.

Despite winning the turnover battle 6-0, Duke fell short, unable to contain SMU’s high-powered offense, which totaled 469 yards—the most allowed by the Blue Devils this season. Although SMU didn’t force a turnover for just the second time in 18 games, they remained undefeated in conference play thanks to their offensive firepower and clutch defensive stand in the final moments.

Key Matchups

Pittsburgh’s defense, currently riding high on a wave of forced turnovers, has been the cornerstone of their undefeated season. Meanwhile, SMU enters with an explosive offensive approach that has consistently put up big numbers.

This game will come down to how well Pittsburgh’s defense can counter SMU’s high-powered attack and whether the Mustangs can avoid the turnover issues that have plagued previous opponents.

Pittsburgh’s Defense vs. SMU’s Offense

Pittsburgh’s defense has been stifling, causing havoc for quarterbacks with relentless pressure and a knack for forcing interceptions, as seen in their recent takedown of Syracuse. SMU, led by the dynamic Smith on the ground and the versatile Jennings under center, will look to keep up their aggressive pace.

Jennings’ ability to extend plays both through the air and on the ground will challenge the Panthers, but Pittsburgh’s opportunistic secondary will be looking to capitalize on any mistakes.

SMU’s Rushing Attack vs. Pittsburgh’s Front Seven

Smith has been the workhorse for SMU, consistently racking up big yards and closing out drives. However, Pittsburgh’s front seven has been resolute against the run, allowing minimal yardage and maintaining their form under pressure.

If Pittsburgh can shut down Smith and keep Jennings in the pocket, it will force the Mustangs into a more one-dimensional attack, which could play into the Panthers’ defensive schemes.

Pittsburgh’s Offense vs. SMU’s Defense

Though Pittsburgh’s defense often takes center stage, their offense has been efficient under Bell’s uptempo system. Holstein has been effective with limited opportunities, making the most of his passing attempts and controlling the pace.

While SMU has proven it can force incompletions at key moments, they’ve also shown vulnerability against fast-paced offenses. Holstein’s ability to lead methodical, short-yardage drives could keep SMU’s offense off the field and maintain control of the game’s tempo.

Special Teams and Turnovers

Both teams have relied on creating turnovers to gain an edge, but this game may see Pittsburgh’s defense shine brightest. SMU’s offense has thrived in shootouts, but Pittsburgh’s defense has demonstrated a talent for scoring on turnovers, which could prove to be the ultimate difference-maker.

The Pick

This game will likely feature a defensive chess match early on, with Pittsburgh leaning on short, efficient drives and SMU attempting to outpace the Panthers’ defense. Pittsburgh’s ability to force turnovers and capitalize on field position gives them a critical edge, especially if they can limit SMU’s explosive plays.

SMU’s offense will make some big plays, but the Panthers’ defensive resilience will allow them to pull away in a tight, hard-fought contest.

College Football Pick: Pittsburgh +7.5 (-110) at BetOnline

Pittsburgh +7.5 (-110)

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