Table of Contents
Phillies vs. Brewers MLB Best Bet: Montas to De-Wheel Philly at Home
-
LT Profits
- September 17, 2024
Table of Contents
MLB Pick: Brewers ML (+124) at Bookmaker (visit our Bookmaker Review)
Tuesday brings us a full 15-game card of MLB betting matchups with every team in action. And we are back with the three plays we feel have the most betting value at the current MLB odds available on top sportsbooks.
These value bets are based mostly on our proprietary model, which favors a side in the Badger State in the Phillies vs. Brewers matchup on Tuesday.
There’s still time to score big! Join BMR Forum’s Free $20K NFL 2024 Pick’em Pool for your shot at massive prizes all season long!
If you’re looking for more MLB value picks:
And if you’re looking for more value picks, make sure to take a look at our YouTube channel for betting advice on the Phillies vs. Brewers and Yankees vs. Mariners games.
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Milwaukee Brewers
Tuesday, September 17, 2024 – 07:40 PM ET at American Family Field
We are looking for an upset in Milwaukee on Tuesday in a battle of division leaders and are backing Frankie Montas and the Brewers as home underdogs hosting Zack Wheeler and the Phillies.
New Pitcher Since Escaping Cincinnati
Frankie Montas began this season with the Reds, but he hated pitching in the hitters’ paradise that is Great American Ball Park. He was tentative in attacking the strike zone, resulting in a lower than usual strikeout rate of 7.52/9 to go along with a 5.01 ERA and 4.70 xFIP during his 19-start stint in Cincinnati. This was from a pitcher that has a career 9.01/9 strikeout rate, 4.01 ERA, and 3.96 xFIP.
Thankfully, Frenkie has received a new lease on life since being traded to a Brewers’ team that at 87-63 currently owns the biggest lead of any division leader at 10 games in the NL Central. Montas has had a hand in that by regaining his peak form, posting a 3.40 ERA and 3.59 xFIP in eight starts in a Milwaukee uniform with a much loftier strikeout rate of 10.00/9!
He comes off a stellar outing Thursday where he allowed just two hits over six scoreless innings with eight strikeouts.
Great Pitcher but Overpriced?
Now, we fully concede that Zack Wheeler has been one of the best pitchers in baseball this season. After all, he ranks third in the Major Leagues in ERA at 2.60 with a strikeout rate practically at double digits at 9.97/9. Just about the only negative, if you want to call it that, is his xFIP lags behind the ERA at 3.41, although even that is good enough for 14th in the majors.
But while we have no issue with Zack’s form, we do think being this big a favorite on the road seems a bit rich in this spot. Besides the fact that he is facing another division leader, also note that Montas’s strikeout rate and xFIP since the trade to Milwaukee are both comparable to Wheeler’s overall numbers.
The Pick
So there has not really been as much separation between these starters as their frontline numbers suggest when factoring in the favorable change of scenery for Montas. This has us betting on the Brewers as home underdogs.
Predicted Score: Brewers 4 – Phillies 3
MLB Pick: Brewers ML (+124) at Bookmaker
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
