Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for Game 7 between the Pacers and Knicks. For your best bets, I will recommend investing in the Pacers.
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NBA Pick: Pacers ML (+108) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)
Indiana Pacers vs. New York Knicks
Sunday, May 19, 2024 – 03:30 PM ET at Madison Square Garden
Indiana Can Win on the Road
It’s tempting to dismiss Indiana’s chances in Game 7 because the Pacers are playing on the road. However, let’s recall that the Pacers nearly won Game 1, which took place in New York.
Let’s also recall that, in the first round, the Pacers won Game 2 in Milwaukee by 17 points.
Indiana’s Game 6 Success Will Carry Over
The Pacers won Game 6 116-103. I love that the Pacers did not win by an absurd margin of victory. The game was close enough to keep them from being complacent, as they were in Game 5. Their three losses in New York will also give them a chip on their shoulder for this road game.
This being Game 7, with everything on the line, we’re going to see them at their best. They showed in Game 6 much of what they are capable of. They won that game in ways that are sustainable.
Impressively, they did not win by making a barrage of threes. Teams not named the Knicks are statistically likelier to shoot well when they play at home, so Indiana did not rely on their home-court advantage to thrive offensively.
Instead, Tyrese Haliburton played to his potential. Pascal Siakam thrived in the paint without having to deal with injured top defender OG Anunoby.
Offensive Depth
Siakam developed a flow with his success down low, which he extended to the mid-range, where he was knocking down shots. Having Siakam as a go-to weapon is hugely important for all the instances when the Pacers don’t score earlier in the shot clock.
As a last resort, they can have him attack down low against New York’s emaciated interior defense. However, Haliburton, Myles Turner, the Pacers’ bench and others are already reliable weapons, too.
Haliburton is the great facilitator who is dangerous from three. Turner is too tough for his Knicks counterpart to account for on the perimeter. The Pacers’ bench boasts two consistent double-digit scorers in Obi Toppin and T.J. McConnell.
New York’s Lack of Scoring Talent
New York is too injured to keep up with the Pacers.
Yes, there’s Jalen Brunson, but he’s one player. Aaron Nesmith and McConnell effectively limit his field goal percentage when either of them operates as his primary defender.
The Knicks really miss Anunoby’s scoring –he is their second-leading scorer in points per game. Josh Hart, Donte DiVincenzo and Isaiah Hartenstein too often struggle to reach double digits.
DiVincenzo already had his big game in this series. Hartenstein hasn’t posed a scoring threat since Game 2. Hart is banged up –he wasn’t able to return to Game 6 after leaving it with abdominal soreness. New York’s bench is very thin.
Remember that the Pacers held the Knicks to 89 points this series, and, as the adage goes, “defense travels.” I don’t see New York having the firepower to keep up with Indiana.
Betting Strategy
Indiana is dogged by two points. There is only one way for Indiana to cover the spread and not win – if the Knicks win by exactly one point.
It is, statistically speaking, extremely improbable that the Knicks win by exactly one point, out of all the possible score lines that the game could finish with.
So, because we love the Pacers in this matchup, let’s simply take Indiana on the ML for a plus-money opportunity.
NBA Pick: Pacers ML (+108) at BetOnline
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
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