Sunday’s best NFL bets revolve around a pair of AFC juggernauts that have caught fire down the stretch and are headed on a collision course in Jacksonville, Florida, on Sunday afternoon.
I can only be referring to the Buffalo Bills as they travel south to take on the Jaguars in sunny Jacksonville. This 1:00 PM ET Wild Card showdown has piqued our interest as we explore the side with the most value and will include a player prop to boot.
Best Bets for Buffalo Bills vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
One of our best bets for Sunday is arguably the most intriguing matchup football fans will watch all weekend. A case could be made that the winner of this matchup could be a favorite to win it all in February.
The Bills check into this postseason meeting having won five of their last six, with the only blemish being a 13-12 loss to the Eagles in Week 17.
Buffalo scored a touchdown with only seconds remaining and chose to forgo the extra point, which would have tied the score and sent the game into overtime, but they failed to convert the two-point conversion.
The all-or-nothing decision did not work out, and much of the blame landed on the shoulders of Josh Allen when his pass sailed out of the reach of Khalil Shakir, who was wide open in the back of the end zone.
The Jaguars have been the hottest team in the league, having won and covered their last eight games. Jacksonville ended the season with a dominating 41-7 shellacking of the Titans and was subsequently crowned AFC South champions with a 13-4 record.
Sunday Wild Card Odds (Jaguars +1)
When this game opened, the oddsmakers installed the Bills as one-point road favorites, and the NFL odds have stayed stagnant at most online sportsbooks. However, Heritage is the only book that has dropped this game to a pick, illustrating a bit of action on the Jags, causing the line to fall a point.
Although anything can happen, and getting every half point you can is a big part of sharp handicapping, a one-point spread doesn’t usually move the needle either way when the dust settles. But that said, if you are leaning toward betting on the Bills, then why not get the best line with Heritage?
Sunday Wild Card Picks (Bills at a Pick)
According to the model, the Bills are predicted to secure a 29-26 victory. That final score makes sense considering that many believe this game will be played in the 50s, and it also lends credence to Buffalo winning as a small road favorite.
After reviewing the NFL odds yet again, hoping the line changed between the time I began writing and now, we see that the best number on the Bills remains at Heritage. The biggest question mark, however, is Josh Allen’s health.
Having rested in Week 18, Josh Allen has had two weeks to recuperate and is expected to return stronger and prepared to utilize his legs when the opportunity presents itself.
But Jacksonville has been a house on fire, and Trevor Lawrence is playing the best football of his career. However, I expect Buffalo’s pass-rushing unit to disrupt Lawrence’s mojo, but the Jags’ rushing game, led by Travis Etienne Jr., should gash the porous Bills run-stop unit early and often.
Yet, how does a successful rushing attack stack up against a successful aerial attack? Not well, actually, because I expect Josh Allen to eviscerate the Jacksonville secondary (assuming he’s healthy), which means the Jags will have to minimize the rushing game and counter with Lawrence leading the Jaguars’ passing attack.
I’m choosing Josh Allen over Trevor Lawrence, assuming Allen is healthy and ready to roll. Check the injury reports as the week progresses.
Expert Pick: Buffalo Bills at a pick (-108) at Heritage
Dawson Knox Over 19.5 Receiving Yards
As we review the player props page, we find that the oddsmakers are offering Dawson Knox’s receiving yards at a mere 19.5. While Josh Allen may not have a wealth of elite wideouts in his arsenal, he possesses one of the league’s strongest tight end duos in Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox.
Jacksonville is particularly susceptible to allowing big gains to tight ends. If we know this, Josh Allen knows this and will look to both Kincaid and Knox as his primary targets—big bodies who can move the chains.
Kincaid’s total receiving yards are 36 ½, which is probably doable as well, but I suspect Kincaid will draw more defensive attention than Knox. This means Knox will be open more often, and his receiving total is nearly half of Kincaid’s.
Expert Pick: Dawson Knox Over 19.5 Receiving Yards (-115) at BetOnline
To Get the Best Lines, You Must Have Multiple Accounts
Getting in the game with an opinion that makes you cash is what it’s all about. The only way to do that is to open an account at one or more of the most trustworthy, reliable, and reputable sportsbooks in the industry, like the several online sportsbooks featured at Bookmakers Review.
Shop at the Most Trustworthy Sportsbooks
Remember, the lines and odds don’t stay stagnant. They move, so why not review our Sunday morning football bets on the Bills and over Dawson Knox’s receiving total when the getting is good? Lock in on a line at one of the best online sportsbooks like Bovada and Heritage Sports, and never miss out on value.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
