Monday night football bets promise to be a strong source of profit when they are driven by careful consideration. This Monday night, the Steelers will host the Texans. My best football bets for this game will include an ATS play and a player prop.
Best Bets for Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Houston Texans
Monday night’s game is the only game that day and the last one of the first playoff round. Pittsburgh finished 10-7 and won the AFC North, for which reason it is the home team on Monday. The Texans were 12-5 but finished second in their division.
Houston high-caliber cornerback Kamari Lassiter hasn’t practiced, but rest on practice days is normal for him to receive before playing on gameday. He has stated that he’ll be ready to play.
Steelers running back Jaylen Warren, who ran for 958 yards on 4.5 YPC and accumulated 333 receiving yards, hasn’t practiced but is only dealing with an illness.
Hence, health won’t play a role in my ATS selection or in my other NFL betting picks for this game.
Monday Night Odds
Houston’s stronger record doesn’t begin to explain why it is favored. The Texans’ 12-5 record actually obscures how well they are playing right now. Houston enters today’s game on a nine-game winning streak. As part of its win streak, Houston has defeated three playoff teams:
- Jacksonville Jaguars
- Buffalo Bills
- Los Angeles Chargers
Conversely, Pittsburgh has beaten zero playoff teams in its last nine games and has been blown out by the Bengals and Chiefs. It thus made sense for the Texans to open as a three-point favorite.
Because it’s a road game, though, and because it’s well-known that Houston is 0-6 in road playoff games, I don’t expect the line to shift. Check out the lines for other games that might interest you.
Monday Night Picks
The best argument for Pittsburgh is the Houston road trend that you’ve probably seen. However, C.J. Stroud was the quarterback for only two of those games. One was at Baltimore in his rookie year in 2023, and the other was last year at the eventual AFC Champion Kansas City.
It is hard to fault him for losing to either of those teams, both of whom were considered Super Bowl contenders at the time. Stroud’s passer rating in the game at Kansas City exceeded his regular-season average, but he was facing a team that had a great defense and was led by an elite quarterback.
Stroud can lead his team to victory on the road, even in cold-weather games. Moreover, he can win in the playoffs. Led by Stroud, the Texans are 2-0 in playoff openers against defenses that ranked vastly higher than the Steelers’.
Meanwhile, Pittsburgh is 0-6 in its last six playoff games. They are losing playoff games by a lot of points and giving up a lot of points in them. Last year, for example, they lost 28-14 to Baltimore.
This is just the matchup for Houston to continue its dominance in playoff openers. For the above reasons, you should expect a Houston victory by double digits.
Wager on Houston -3 at -107 with BetOnline. Be sure to check out predictions for other NFL games that might interest you.
Expert Pick: Houston Texans -3 (-107) at BetOnline
Pittsburgh’s Aaron Rodgers (Under 207 Passing Yards -115)
Aaron Rodgers has played in seven games against top-ten pass defenses. He exceeded 207 passing yards one time, at home against a Cleveland pass defense that plays radically worse in road games, allowing nearly 70 more pass yards in road games than in home games.
Rodgers must be expected to struggle against Houston’s sixth-ranked pass defense, which boasts a superb pass rush and high-caliber defensive backs.
Player props for this game should be oriented around the expectation that Pittsburgh’s offense will struggle to be productive. Rodgers is a great player to target in this respect, even in a blowout situation in which he’ll throw more passes.
He’ll want to throw deep balls for quick scores, but he won’t accumulate any yards when he sits in the pocket, waiting for receivers to get downfield, and gets eaten up by Houston’s eighth-ranked pass rush. Feel free to check out player props for other games that might interest you.
Expert Pick: Aaron Rodgers Under 207 Passing Yards (-115) at Bovada
What We’ve Covered and Next Steps
We can’t wait for Monday Night Football, where we’ll get to see the last playoff game of the first round. Be confident in your Monday night football bets on the Texans and on the Aaron Rodgers pass yards “under.”
Timing is everything in sports betting, so you should watch out for any line movement and try to get the best number for each of your bets. Capitalize on these favorable bets by opening a new sportsbook account and wagering today.
Offshore Sportsbooks
It is always good practice to sign up with multiple reputable sportsbooks so that you can line-shop. One reliable sportsbook that I relied on for this article is BetOnline.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
