We can profit from making live NFL picks by thinking about the games with clear-headed logic.
My Jaguars aren’t playing on Thursday, so I can contemplate my NFL picks Thanksgiving angles without any emotional investment. The matchup edge feels very clear to me for two Thanksgiving games, in particular, which I will focus on for my expert NFL picks.
NFL Picks for Thanksgiving At-a-Glance
This article will center on my favorite NFL picks for Thanksgiving Day in Week 13. I will break down two games from a bettor’s perspective: Green Bay vs. Detroit and Cincinnati vs. Baltimore.
Green Bay Packers vs. Detroit Lions (-3)
Thursday, November 27, 2025 – 1:00 PM ET
Led by Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery, Detroit is very much a run-first team. The Lions rank third in rush-play percentage and want to win primarily by running the ball.
Accordingly, they tend to lose when they don’t run well. In each of their four losses this year, Gibbs failed to reach four YPC – whereas he averages 6.1 YPC this season. Detroit won one game in which Gibbs failed to reach four YPC. In that game, Montgomery took over and amassed 151 rushing yards. Given this information, it is critical to assess the quality of Green Bay’s run defense.
I like the Packers in this matchup because I like their rush defense. Green Bay ranks sixth against the run, and, as evident in their 27-20 win at the Giants, they are well-equipped to handle high-ranking rush attacks.
Detroit’s Defensive Vulnerabilities
In their last game, the Lions nearly lost as a 14.5-point home favorite to the Giants, whose quarterback amassed 366 yards. Detroit’s pass defense has been hit hard by injury, although its top sack-getters were healthy and still failed to pressure New York’s quarterback sufficiently.
Green Bay has one of the top pass-protection units, which will position its quarterback, Jordan Love, to replicate the success of New York’s quarterback and to help Green Bay exceed its Week 1 point total.
Betting Recommendation
Therefore, bet on the Packers +3 with the fullest confidence in their pass attack and run defense. Check out our odds widget to track the lines as they evolve.
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Baltimore Ravens (-7)
Thursday, November 27, 2025 – 8:20 PM ET
Rumors are circulating that Cincinnati’s star quarterback Joe Burrow will return for this game.
As a Ravens backer looking to get the best number, I sure hope that he does, as his return would shift the line in Cincinnati’s favor. Bettors would expect him to help his team succeed, but he would be in poor form because he’d be playing for the first time since September 14.
Recall that Burrow struggles when he isn’t sharp. Hence, he was notorious for starting a season slow before his head coach made a point of giving him more playing time in the last preseason in order to prepare him for this year’s regular season. He would be rusty and unprepared for this game. If he doesn’t play, then Joe Flacco, with his miserable 79.2 passer rating, would start.
Cincinnati’s Defensive Issues
Defensively, Cincinnati allows almost 30 yards more than any other team. Baltimore has an elite rush attack and is led by superstar quarterback Lamar Jackson. A Cincinnati defense that allowed over 35 points to the Jets and Bears cannot limit Baltimore’s offense to an extent that would allow Cincinnati’s offense, even if Burrow were to both play and be in good form, to score enough points.
For the above reasons, bet on the Ravens -7.
Lock In Your Turkey Day NFL Bets
We can’t wait to see Lamar Jackson play, but Green Bay’s offense will also be exciting to watch. For my NFL picks week 13, I am recommending the Ravens and the Packers. Timing is everything in sports betting, which means that you should keep track of the line movement and try to get the best number for each game. Capitalize on these favorable picks by opening a new offshore sportsbook account and placing two bets today.
Where to Find the Best NFL Odds
It is essential that you obtain the sharpest line available, and the only way to do that is to immediately bet on the games and ensure you have an active account.
For our Thanksgiving day picks, take a look at BetOnline for the best odds across the board!
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
