Have we cracked the secret code for these tasty NBA player props today?
Jarace Walker (11 points, Over 8.5) and Dyson Daniels (15 points, Over 10.5) both eclipsed their Points totals this past Wednesday; maybe Giannis Antetokounmpo (one assist, Under 6.5) would have cashed in, too, but he played just three minutes before straining his right calf.
No matter – Giannis was the outlier among our three basketball picks. Maybe it’s those defensive specialists we need to focus on for Friday’s NBA props.
Trail Blazers’ Jerami Grant (Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made +136)
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Detroit Pistons – December 05, 07:30 PM ET
Jerami Grant (2.3 made threes per game) was a black hole on offense early in his career, but he turned things around when he joined the Pistons in 2020; now Grant’s on the other side of Friday’s matchup, playing in his fourth season for the Trail Blazers.
It’s all about high Usage Rate.
The Blazers need Grant now more than ever. With five players on the injured list, including Jrue Holiday (calf), Scoot Henderson (hamstring) and, yes, Damian Lillard (Achilles), someone has to be taking those threes.
Grant would have beaten Friday’s made 3-point total in each of his last three games, and seven of nine since Holiday (7.1 3-point attempts per game, tops on the team) went on the injured list. Volume, volume, volume.
Celtics’ Derrick White (Over 17.5 Points –102)
Los Angeles Lakers vs. Boston Celtics – December 05, 07:00 PM ET
After all the turnover the Celtics have experienced the past couple of years, they still have two quality players in Derrick White (16.3 points per game) and Jaylen Brown, both of whom are posting career highs in Usage Rate and field-goal attempts per game.
The projections we’re looking at have White pegged for 21.55 points in this matchup with the Lakers; that number may have been skewed by the absence of Brown for Thursday’s win over Washington, where White led all scorers with 30 points.
The question is whether Brown will suit up for the second game of this back-to-back. Do you believe in the illness that was cited for his absence against the Wizards? Maybe that’s something we should treat like probability of precipitation.
In any event, the added chance of Brown missing this game, on top of White’s improved shooting this year, might explain the nearly 20% Expected Value this projection gives us at these odds.
Spurs’ Julian Champagnie (Over 2.5 3-Pointers Made +144)
San Antonio Spurs vs. Cleveland Cavaliers – December 05, 07:30 PM ET
It wouldn’t be right to call Julian Champagnie (2.2 made threes per game) a 3-and-D guy. I mean, it’s his nominal role with the Spurs, but Champagnie isn’t terribly efficient at either task.
Like many wings of his ilk, Champagnie is a useful help defender; on-ball is where he gets burned. Not that it matters for our chosen prop – as long as Champagnie gets his usual 6.1 attempts off, which shouldn’t be a problem given the medium pace the Cavs operate at (101.6 possessions per game, No. 15 overall).
The absences of Jarrett Allen (finger), Sam Merrill (hand), Larry Nance Jr (calf) and Max Strus (foot) for Cleveland should only help our cause.
Make Bank With Bookmakers Review
Those NBA player props today for Grant and White look reasonably “public” at first blush; Champagnie is more of a fringe player, so you might want to save that one for a sharp-friendly sportsbook.
We’ve got the skinny on all the books here at Bookmakers Review, so you can find out which locations you should open betting accounts at, and which ones you should avoid. The more books you have, the more line-shopping you can do for the best basketball odds on the board, so shop smart, and may the sphere be with you.
*The line and/or odds on picks in this article might have moved since the content was commissioned. For updated line movements, visit BMR’s free betting odds product.
