NBA Pick April 9: Indiana Isn’t Messing Around

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NBA Pick: Pacers -11.5 (-110) at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review)

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Pacers -11.5 (-110)
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Top-rated sportsbooks have released their NBA odds for Indiana’s matchup with Toronto. For your best bet, I will recommend investing in the Pacers.

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Indiana Pacers vs. Toronto Raptors

Tuesday, April 09, 2024 – 07:00 PM ET at Scotiabank Arena

Previous Meetings

It might seem unreasonable that Indiana is favored so heavily in tonight’s game.

These teams have met three times already. Toronto won two of those games, and Indiana won the other by two points.

Key Differences

However, there are two key differences that will strongly influence tonight’s outcome in Indiana’s favor.

One, Toronto’s second- and third-leading scorers will not play tonight, whereas they had mostly played in the previous three meetings.

  • Scottie Barnes, who scored 20 or more points in each of those three games, is injured.
  • Immanuel Quickley, who averaged 16.5 points in the two games he played against the Pacers, is getting a rest day.

The other key difference is that Indiana’s defense is strongly improved. Since March, Indiana’s defensive rating is 5.2 points better than it was before March – its three games against Toronto were played before March.

Indiana’s Rim Protection

Indiana’s defense makes it difficult for opponents to score at the rim.

The Pacers rank eighth-best at limiting opposing field goal percentage within five feet of the basket. They are led in this respect by shot-blocker Myles Turner, who ranks tenth in blocks per game and is improving in this respect. The strong perimeter defense of guys like Aaron Nesmith is also helpful.

Indiana’s stout rim protection is useful against a Toronto team that attempts the seventh-most shots within five feet of the basket. Toronto will be uncomfortable on offense tonight because it won’t score where it wants to.

Indiana’s Offense Tonight

The Pacers scored over 120 points in all three meetings against Toronto this season. They’ll continue this trend because their offense matches up well against the Raptors’ defense. Indiana wants to score at the basket more than any other team.

Toronto, though, lacks good rim protectors who can prevent blow-bys from ball-handlers. The Raptors also suffer issues in general with their ball-screen defense. These schematic issues allow offenses to create more pressure at the rim.

The Pacers have guys like Tyrese Haliburton, who will ably get to the basket and finish against a Raptors defense that allows the seventh-most field goals and the third-highest field goal percentage within five feet of the basket.

NBA Pick: Pacers -11.5 (-110) at BetOnline

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Pacers -11.5 (-110)
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